Readers, I hold needing to depart notes like this, which is embarrassing. I promised a protracted Water Cooler right this moment, however I misunderestimated the time it might take to complete a publish on the splendors and miseries of Biden’s debate efficiency and the following reactions to it. So right this moment can be nearly solely politics, and perhaps somewhat Covid (apart from the 9 charts, none of that are excellent news), and tomorrow’s finest laid plan is for largely Covid, which I can end up earlier than I hit the highway. –lambert
Frequent Loon, Brown Bear Lake-middle, Kitimat-Stikine, British Columbia, Canada. “2 loons that I paddled proper by. They have been simply swimming round in the midst of the lake. No signal of a nest, however I didn’t look. After I handed they began calling.”
(1) New Covid charts. Readers, I’m not joyful about any of this, particularly earlier than the vacation weekend. Keep secure on the market!
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Larry Tribe appears to not grasp the idea of context. He writes:
Alexander Hamilton wrote in Federalist 69 that former presidents could be “liable to prosecution and punishment within the peculiar course of regulation.” However what did he know? He was only a bastard, orphan, son of a whore and a Scotsman, dropped in the midst of a forgotten spot within the…
— Laurence Tribe 🇺🇦 ⚖️ (@tribelaw) July 2, 2024
Right here is the total quote from Federalist 69:
The President of the US could be liable to be impeached, tried, and, upon conviction of treason, bribery, or different excessive crimes or misdemeanors, faraway from workplace; and .
It’s the “afterwards” half that’s key. At the least for official capabilities, you’ll be able to’t get on the “peculiar course of regulation” (i.e., felony expenses) with out going by way of impeachment first.
Lambert right here: I don’t suppose a lot of the Courtroom’s newest in Trump v. United States: “Absolute immunity” means absolute; to that extent liberals yammering about Kings are right (though I suppose one may argue that we now have an elective monarch, somewhat than a heriditary one). However you’ll be able to’t have “absolute” something in a system of checks and balances; as Madison wrote in Federalist 51: “Ambition have to be made to counteract ambition. The curiosity of the person have to be linked with the constitutional rights of the place.” But when the constitional rights of the “place” (i.e., official place) are “absolute,” then there may be nothing to counteract the ambitions of the person, and so the bulk in Trump v. United States has produced an absurd, system-destroying outcome. OTOH, it’s laborious to see how lawfare, systematically pursued, may produce any different outcome, on condition that any Grand Jury will indict a ham sandwich, and anyone might be discovered guilt of violating some regulation, given a stage of effort. So if you need “power within the government,” you’ll be able to’t sap that department with contrived and tendentious lawsuits, and so there must be a rule to type them. Now there’s a rule (“watch out what you would like for”). As soon as once more Trump, as is his little manner, has discovered a restrict case within the system, and damaged by way of it by pursuing the case to its logical conclusion. I might speculate the treatment for the butchery in Trump v. United States is Constitutional: If a President desires to interrupt a regulation as a part of a core government perform, Congress can over-ride by a majority vote, which the President may veto, and the veto might be over-ridden by a two-thirds majority. Maybe readers can present a greater repair. Commentary:
That is “the one repair?” Even the Framers understood that wishing “males have been angels”—i.e., not prone to abusing energy given to them—is to want for there to be no want for presidency in any respect. We have reverted to pre-constitutional pondering right here. https://t.co/jAeqAg6C5h
— corey robin (@CoreyRobin) July 2, 2024
That unhealthy authorities is the results of “the unhealthy individuals” in workplace is totally Third World pondering. I don’t recall ever listening to Maddow; however whoever is, ought to cease.
FAFO:
Presidents loved purposeful immunity from felony prosecution for “official acts” between 1789 and 2023. Now, the Supreme Courtroom has codified that immunity. That is largely due to the Particular Counsel purporting to criminalize a large array of “official” actions undertaken…
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) July 1, 2024
Why not (1):
one thing singularly brash & dictatorial like this won’t faze T***p if he’s re-elected; but, a Democrat would by no means do it. it is the previous paradox of liberals creating the surroundings for the extinction of liberalism as in plant evolution a main species creates the… https://t.co/Yh5i0FBqW2
— Joyce Carol Oates (@JoyceCarolOates) July 2, 2024
* * * Right here is one useful diagram about how Trump v. United States may have an effect on Trump’s present circumstances:
There’s a variety of misunderstanding of the Supreme Courtroom’s ruling within the presidential immunity #January6th case.
We created this infographic @just_security to clarify:
– the pathways open to Jack Smith
– the scope of immunity from prosecution for all future presidents pic.twitter.com/XlFOwLldp8— Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) July 1, 2024
The impact of Trump v. United States on Smith’s prosecution in Chutkan’s courtroom:
The case now will get remanded again to the District Courtroom, the place Choose Chutkan is in cost. She’s been ordered to have interaction in proceedings to find out whether or not Trump’s actions have been “official acts” of the workplace of the President, or “unofficial acts” of a candidate or citizen.
— Tristan Snell (@TristanSnell) July 1, 2024
Trump v. United States mustn’t have an effect on the Georgia case:
That is the cash quote for the entire Trump v. United States case. Justice Barrett has it precisely proper — and exhibits why the Courtroom (and perhaps the Particular Counsel) is making this manner too laborious. The only real query needs to be whether or not acts referring to operating for president are core… pic.twitter.com/PLD933l6W0
— Lessig 🇺🇦 (@lessig) July 1, 2024
If in reality a President’s operating for President is a core official perform, than certainly l’etat c’est moi. So, one thing to look at.
2024
Lower than a half a 12 months to go!
RCP takes North Carolina off the desk as a Swing State, and replaces it with Virginia. Trump continues to be holding his personal, and that is earlier than the talk. Swing States (extra right here) nonetheless Brownian-motioning round. In fact, it goes with out saying that these are all state polls, due to this fact unhealthy, and a lot of the outcomes are inside the margin of error. If can be attention-grabbing to see whether or not the decision in Choose Merchan’s courtroom impacts the polling, and in that case, how. NOTE Sorry for the surplus purple dots; I can’t appear to make them go away!
* * * Biden (D): Desperation units in:
Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden simply co-authored a chunk laying into large pharmaceutical firms for over-charging Individuals on weight problems medicine. I notice Biden is senile, however would his replacements do something like this? Most would not. https://t.co/e6qUxGJTDk
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) July 2, 2024
Biden (D): Oh good:
SCOOP: The Democratic Nationwide Committee will take over the digital homepages of three main battleground-state newspapers tomorrow. It appears to “remind voters that the one factor that stands between Donald Trump and our democracy is Joe Biden.” https://t.co/O1ALXNuRaz
— Axios (@axios) July 2, 2024
Again within the day, David Duke, a former grand wizard of the Knights of the Ku Klux Klan, was operating for Governor of Lousiana towards the famously corrupt Edwin Edwards (“The one manner I can lose this election is that if I’m caught in mattress with both a lifeless woman or a reside boy.”) The Democrats gained, with an equally well-known bumper sticker that learn: “Vote for the criminal. It’s necessary!” So, “Vote for the corpse. It’s necessary!” (and [family blog it] the [family blogging] Nationwide Review acquired there first. Why oh why do Democrats suck a lot?!
* * * [Whoops, forget to delete the squillion links I’d collected and can’t get to. Maybe later! –lambert]
* * *
Republican Funhouse
https://x.com/galvinalmanza/standing/1807195762192724403?s=12
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Vaccines
“NIH-sponsored trial of nasal COVID-19 vaccine opens” (press launch) [NIH]. N = 60. “A Section 1 trial testing the security of an experimental nasal vaccine which will present enhanced breadth of safety towards rising variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is now enrolling wholesome adults at three websites in the US. The Nationwide Institutes of Well being (NIH) is sponsoring the first-in-human trial of the investigational vaccine, which was designed and examined in pre-clinical research by scientists from NIH’s Nationwide Institute of Allergy and Infectious Ailments (NIAID) Laboratory of Infectious Ailments.” • Late is best than by no means, I suppose. I simply hope they don’t butcher this like they butchered the RECOVER (Lengthy Covid) mission. Maybe one in all our medical professionals can touch upon the research methodology; the arms, and so forth.
Variants: Covid
TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new right this moment; all others will not be up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with sizzling spots annotated. Worse than two weeks in the past. New York is a sizzling once more, and Covid is spreading up the Maine Coast simply in time for the Fourth of July weekend, in one other triumph for Administration coverage.
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 arising on the skin.
[4] (ER) That is the most effective I can do for now. At the least information for your complete pandemic is introduced.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is appropriate with a wastewater lower, however nonetheless not feeling .(The NY city space has kind; in 2020, as the house of two worldwide airports (JFK and EWR) it was an necessary entry level for the virus into the nation (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, because the wealthy sought to flee, after which across the nation by way of air journey.)
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). That is the most effective I can do for now. Be aware the belief that Covid is seasonal is constructed into the presentation, which in reality exhibits that Covid is not seasonal. At the least information for your complete pandemic is introduced.
[7] (Walgreens) Nonetheless going up!
[8] (Cleveland) Nonetheless going up!
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up. These sh*theads at CDC have modified the chart in order that it doesn’t even run again to 1/21/23, because it used to, however now begins 1/1/24. There’s additionally no technique to alter the time rasnge. CDC actually doesn’t need you to have the ability to take a historic view of the pandemic, or examine one surge to a different. In an any case, that’s why the form of the curve has modified.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) Similar deal. These sh*theads. I’m leaving this right here for one more week as a result of I detest them a lot:
[11] Deaths low, however positivity up.
[12] Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
Employment Scenario: “United States Job Openings” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of job openings rose by 221,000 from the earlier month to eight.140 million in Might 2024, beating the market consensus of seven.91 million. It follows a downwardly revised 7.919 million in April which was the bottom in three years. ”
Provide Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Supervisor’s Index within the US edged decrease to 55.3 in June 2024 from 55.6 in Might, however pointed to a seventh consecutive month of growth within the logistics sector.”
The Bezzle: Direct motion brings satisfaction:
A grocery store in France determined to go cashless.
A gaggle of greater than 50 locals acquired collectively and all went and crammed trolleys on the identical time.
They got here to the try and all mentioned that they solely had money. No money = leaving the stuff behind and strolling out.
The supervisor was…
— Miss Jo (@therealmissjo) July 1, 2024
As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 49 Impartial (earlier shut: 47 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 39 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 2 at 12:42:35 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes down one on Oil Provide/Value. “Oil demand is steady” [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 186. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is sweet.) • Not what the local weather protection implies.
Class Warfare
“The Shareholder Supremacy” [Ed Zitron, Where’s Your Ed At?]. “[I]t was the Shareholder Supremacy motion that created the nebulous creature generally known as ‘administration’ — a figurehead that exists to extend firm worth and make speeches somewhat than have any sort of area experience or bonafides, somebody with simply the power to maneuver numbers round and level at individuals to ‘get issues completed,’ even when ‘issues’ may imply ‘make one thing worse as a method of reducing prices.’ Within the eyes of the Shareholder Supremacist, the CEO of a tech firm isn’t somebody that builds, invests in, or proliferates applied sciences, however a stage-magician-accountant hybrid that makes use of a mixture of sleight of hand and obscure guarantees to persuade these round them that an organization is ‘the long run,’ with the occasional outcome being that the corporate may develop expertise sooner or later. But it took many years for the injury to essentially set in, when, in 1960, a horrible little man referred to as Jack Welch would be a part of Common Electrical….” • “A stage-magician-accountant hybrid….” Dave Calhoun, is that you just?
Information of the Wired
“The Mysterious, Deep-Dwelling Microbes That Sculpt Our Planet” [New York Times]. “We stepped out and walked a brief distance to a big plastic spigot protruding from the rock. A pearly stream of water trickled from the wall close to the tap’s base, forming rivulets and swimming pools. Wafting from the water was hydrogen sulfide — the supply of the chamber’s odor. Kneeling, I spotted that the water was teeming with a stringy white materials much like the pores and skin of a poached egg. Caitlin Casar, a geobiologist, defined that the white fibers have been microbes within the genus Thiothrix, which be a part of collectively in lengthy filaments and retailer sulfur of their cells, giving them a ghostly hue. Right here we have been, deep inside Earth’s crust — a spot the place, with out human intervention, there could be no mild and little oxygen — but life was actually gushing from rock.” • Perspective!
Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:
TH writes: “That is on the Sherman Library and Gardens in Corona Del Mar – a favourite hang-out. I favored the highlight impact of the solar on the wealthy orange/purple blossoms. The fly was a bonus…or not, relying on how one feels about flies.” I suppose at thsi level I’m for any bugs in any respect, till the soil microbes work out what to do subsequent!
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:
Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
In case you hate PayPal, you’ll be able to e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on easy methods to ship a verify. Thanks!
