2:00PM Water Cooler 8/19/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Fowl Music of the Day

Nonetheless with the Thrashers!

California Thrasher, Daley Ranch, San Diego, California, United States.

In Case You May Miss…

1. Up to date Covid knowledge: First sighting of XDV.1 variant from China.
2. A marketing campaign state of affairs and the Democrat Nationwide Conference.
3. Israel accepts US ceasefire proposal (good timing).

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Lower than 100 days to go!

Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:

There isn’t a excellent news right here for Trump. The deterioration in each Pennsylvania and Georgia is very marked. Keep in mind, nonetheless, that each one the fluctuations — in actual fact, all of the leads — are inside the margin of error. So the “pleasure” is predicated on, nicely, vibes.

* * *

The Democrat Nationwide Conference:

Lambert right here: Let’s begin out by inspecting the state of play. Right here’s a state of affairs primarily based on the concept nothing a lot structural has modified from 2020; and that the election will come down to some hundred thousand voters in kind of the identical swing states. (I’ve heard the speculation put forth that this isn’t the Kamala marketing campaign’s idea of the case; that “pleasure,” vibes, and memes change the electoral map throughout the board, and maybe that can be enough in a “100 Days” marketing campaign. I’m unsure how strongly that idea is held exterior the Blue Bubble, nonetheless; it’s true that Trump has slipped within the polls, however is the race now not shut? No. So for now, I’m sticking to the unique state of affairs.) Learn from left to proper, prime to backside. Captions are beneath every map:

TABLE 0: An Electoral School Situation

Now let’s speak about Pennsylvania. Curiously, the Uncommitted Delegates and the Palestinian trigger have already got a voice contained in the all on the Democrat Nationwide Conference:

Uncommitted: DNC will host first ever panel on Palestinian human rights
Panelists:
Uncommitted co-lead Layla Elabed
Surgeon who served in Gaza
Get together organizer w/ household killed in Gaza by Israeli forces
MN AG Keith Ellison
Fmr Rep Andy Levin
Arab American Institute pres. Jim Zogby pic.twitter.com/ge1xGqNtqx

— Prem Thakker (@prem_thakker) August 19, 2024

(Readers will recall that Sanders tried to put in Keith Ellison after 2016, however the Democrats threw Ellison underneath the bus in favor of the reptilian Tom Perez.) So what can Kamala give them? First, how most of the “Uncommitted” voters are there? Michigan: 100,000+; Wisconsin, 47,800 (Minnesota 40,000 however not a swing state.) Additional, the “Uncommitted” voters are typically from the activist class of the social gathering. Now, let’s have a look at Pennsylvania. From the American Jewish Inhabitants Challenge (2020):

That’s 232,000. Assume 70% vote (excessive), that’s 162,400. Assume one other 70% are Zionist or Zionist-adjacent. That’s 113,680. So the numbers within the higher Midwest and Pennsylvania are roughly comparable. All different issues being equal, I consider Kamala would take the AIPAC cash and throw the activists (and that ex-Sanders dude) underneath the bus. In a nano-second! However all different issues will not be equal; she wants — because the “Finish Sport” map exhibits — each Pennsylvania and the Midwest.

Speculating freely: I believe Kamala first “secured her rear” within the higher Midwest. That’s what Walz was all about. That was in actual fact clever; she’s now forward there, “Uncommitted” voters apart. She will additional cool the Uncommitted Delegates by providing them meaningless concessions; “listening,” a speech from the ground, face time with the candidate, a promise that Biden is working the issue laborious (and who is aware of, he may really ship a ceasefire, meaningless although that’s within the face of a decided genocidaire). Having solidified the higher Midwest, she goes after Pennsylvania. (It’s excruciatingly attention-grabbing to me that the facet of Kamala’s marketing campaign that’s meme-driven (the sofa; “bizarre”) is strongly harking back to the sensible marketing campaign run by Fetterman’s social media staff.) NOTE Why not Shapiro? The Midwest was first, and Walz helped there; Shapiro’s laborious to work with (IIRC, he had “schedule issues” this week and couldn’t assist Kamala marketing campaign); and the marketing campaign workers will need to have felt they might do the job with out him (in spite of everything, Biden Pennsylvania in in 2020).

* * *

Kamala (D): “Democratic Nationwide Committee delegates will vote on the social gathering’s 2024 platform at its conference on Monday night, in keeping with officers. A full, 92-page draft platform was unveiled by the social gathering late on Sunday evening” [ABC]. “Democratic Nationwide Committee delegates will vote on the social gathering’s 2024 platform at its conference on Monday night, in keeping with officers. A full, 92-page draft platform was unveiled by the social gathering late on Sunday evening.” • Loads of time to learn it! Institutionally, the previous few years have been an attention-grabbing time for the Democrat Get together: There was no conference in 2020, and the Democrats have been in a position to wrap Biden in tissue paper for your entire marketing campaign. Then in 2024, there have been no primaries worthy of the title. Then Kamala was annointed by a really small group of Inside Get together insiders (Pelosi, Obama, Schumer), and have become a Presidential candidate with out having confronted the voters and gained a single major operating for President, both in 2020 or 2024, and your entire social gathering immediately fell in line. Kamala instantly took management of the marketing campaign money, and some days later was formally elected at a digital conference. There may be, then no goal no matter for the conference in Chicago; it’s purely vestigial, a specatacle (a spectacle that may be interfered with, in fact). I really feel sure that the Inside Get together prefer it this fashion, and that “major” “campaigns” like it will develop into the brand new regular. In the meantime, there’s a superb deal on Israsel within the plagform, however these two sections appear salient:

No matter “a political horizon for the Palestinian individuals” may imply. And:

(Readers know, I’m certain, find out how to assess “conflict-related sexual violence.) Wowsers, I haven’t heard that nauseating phrase “a time of battle” for the reason that days of Bush the Youthful. Recollections! (To be honest, “concessions” could be made to the Uncommitted delegates by modifying a few of the wording. If there’s time [hilarity ensues].)

Kamala (D): “1000’s of activists anticipated in Chicago for Democratic conference to name for Gaza cease-fire” [Associated Press]. “Demonstrations are anticipated each day of the conference and, whereas their agendas range, many activists agree an instantaneous cease-fire within the Israel-Hamas battle is the precedence.” • Assuming the AP is represening the calls for of the protesters precisely, that’s what Biden says he needs too. So we’re all agreed then? Right here is the picture from the AP article:

That is not less than not tightly centered, however broad angle. Nevertheless, solely an aerial picture can present the true measurement of a crowd.

Kamala (D): “Blinken says Israel has accepted US-backed proposal for a cease-fire, calls on Hamas to do identical” [New York Post]. “His announcement got here after negotiators gathered final week to debate the US-back, UN-approved deal, with Hamas selecting to forgo the assembly after it accused the Jewish state of adjusting what was on the desk. The US-backed proposal seeks to impose a six-week pause in preventing in order to permit Israel and Hamas to debate a hostage change, all whereas permitting Palestinian refugees to return to their houses and obtain extra help. Hamas has allegedly dropped its calls for for the speedy cease-fire to be everlasting, however the terror group has beforehand acknowledged that the deal ought to embody wording to ascertain an finish to the battle. It stays unclear if such a change was added to the settlement or if the fear group would lastly settle for the deal. Hamas additionally accused Israel of now demanding its army hold a presence alongside the Gaza-Egypt border, the place massive terror tunnel programs have been not too long ago discovered, to forestall arms smuggling.” • Good timing, I need to say (and placing the demonstrators within the place of arguing that Hamas has not accepted the ceasefire for good cause which, although in all probability true, is a heavy elevate for the common voter. “Why aren’t your demonstrating towards Hamas,” and so forth).

Kamala (D): Curiously, the Nationwide Guard has already been activated:

BREAKING: The Governor of Illinois J.B. Pritzker has activated lots of of armed Nationwide Guard troops to guard Democrat officers on the DNC from their OWN leftist protestors & rioters

“They’re on the perimeter… We additionally need to be sure we have now further legislation enforcement… pic.twitter.com/IeWHuEXsf2

— George (@BehizyTweets) August 18, 2024

The Marketing campaign Path:

Kamala:

Kamala (D): “Walz responds to GOP criticism of how Harris laughs: ‘She has a pleasure emanating out of her’” [National Post]. “‘They’re on her as a result of she laughs,; Walz, the Minnesota governor, advised a gathering of the Hispanic Caucus throughout Monday’s first day of the Democratic Nationwide Conference in Chicago. ‘My god. I’ll take somebody who laughs any rattling day of the week.’ He continued of Harris, ‘She has a pleasure emanating out of her.’” • Good leveraging/reframing of the “pleasure” speaking level; Walz certain is fast on his toes.

Kamala (D): “The Intense Technique of Designing Political Marketing campaign Logos” [Kottke.org]. “The present Harris/Walz brand is predicated on the design of Harris’s presidential marketing campaign supplies from 2020, which ‘well riffed on the 1972 Shirley Chisholm marketing campaign.’” • Oh.

Trump: [sigh]. Possibly tomorrow.

Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Elite Maleficence

Lack of govt perform at CDC:

For anybody who’s questioning, sure, this atrocious submit on Instragram by @CDCGov is actual. Biden accomplished the destruction of public well being that Trump began, and @CDCDirector Cohen and her minimizing minions bury us deeper each day. pic.twitter.com/NOK90RleqO

— Writer Michael R. Hicks (@KreelanWarrior) August 17, 2024

(On Instagram, which I can’t get to, however confirmed by a number of Twitter accounts.)

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

At the moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 41 Concern (earlier shut: 35 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 21 (Excessive Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 19 at 3:00:51 PM ET.

Gallery

“They Who Can not”:

Zeitgeist Watch

The Children Are Alright:

Information of the Wired

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are tremendous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From EM:

EM writes: “This yr’s late spring rain got here at an opportune time for our Monarda (Bee Balm), which has practically reached 5 toes excessive. Hummingbirds are loving this. Zooming into the decrease proper nook of the Monarda stand one can see milkweed, planted final yr, peeking out subsequent to the coreopsis. Additionally, our first yr to develop sunflowers. Sadly, annually it appears the bee inhabitants dwindles however we strive our greatest to maintain them. For reference, standing at a mere 5′-3” is Mrs. “NYT_Memes”. Late June and early July have been sizzling in Beaverton as we watch for the A/C man to return to the rescue. I have no idea should you want not having any people in plant photographs. I might retake if you want since I additionally see that I cropped the highest of the sunflowers, plus the crimson gladiolus is within the shade.”

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