2:00PM Water Cooler July 5, 2004

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Affected person readers, this willl be a brief Water Cooler, partly as a result of that is alleged to be a vacation, but in addition as a result of I’m having an influence failure. Right here’s hoping the battery holds out! –lambert

Chicken Tune of the Day

Widespread Loon, Algonquin Park; Lake Sasajewan, Ontario, Canada.

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

(1) First submit debate RCP common.

(2) Biden interview; our famously free press.

(3) CDC flipflops on vax solely (over the Fourth of July weekend).

(4) Consciousness: we all know nothing.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Lower than a half a 12 months to go!

Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:

First post-debate polling: Trump jumps a full level within the 5-way nationwide race, which a Biden supporter may discover regarding. OTOH, the Swing States appear comparatively unaffected. Swing States (extra right here) nonetheless Brownian-motioning round. After all, it goes with out saying that these are all state polls, subsequently unhealthy, and a lot of the outcomes are throughout the margin of error. It might be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had precisely the identical impact as Trump’s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, each events are so dug in.

* * *

Biden (D): “Biden set for rally and high-stakes TV interview as he seeks to get well from debate” [NBC]. ” President Joe Biden will maintain a rally Friday in Wisconsin after which sit for his first televised interview since his disastrous debate efficiency final week, occasions could possibly be essential in figuring out whether or not he can salvage his embattled candidacy. The interview with anchor George Stephanopoulos of ABC Information is shaping as much as be one of the crucial high-stakes moments for a president or a candidate in a few years. Democratic elected officers, donors and voters will likely be intently watching to see whether or not he can nonetheless ship in an adversarial setting and switch in a efficiency worthy of being the social gathering’s nominee to defeat Donald Trump this fall. The interview will ‘air in its entirety as a primetime particular’ at 8 p.m. ET Friday, ABC stated, including {that a} ‘transcript of the unedited interview will likely be made out there the identical day.’” • NOTE “Biden lacked oomph, however the transcript tells a distinct story” [The Hill]. That doesn’t negate what all of us noticed, nevertheless it does add nuance.

Biden (D): “The Conspiracy of Silence to Shield Joe Biden” [Olivia Nuzzi, New York Magazine]. And the deck: “The president’s psychological decline was like a darkish household secret for a lot of elite supporters.” • To not NC readers; I keep in mind vividly — and can’t discover the hyperlink; energy failure is imminent and since search — posting on Biden being guided down and away from a particularly unchallenging flight of steps by a staffer in Iowa 2020; and it might be enjoyable to make a chart of “juiced up.” In no sense was Biden’s decrepitude “hidden,” not less than from an alert reader or a cautious watcher, any greater than Covid is “hidden.” As with Covid, Biden’s situation was not discussable (not less than amongst Folks Who Matter; opinion-haves like Nuzzi).

Lambert: We have a tendency to consider the Democrat Social gathering as one thing you’ll be able to draw a boundary round, like a company org chart, and in consequence have a tendency to consider the Biden succession disaster os happening inside these bounds; therefore the division of the Social gathering into classes or fractions, and assessments of Biden’s assist, or lack thereof, in these fractions. However in reality there are a number of very giant, highly effective, and above all extra-Constitutional* entities that each overlap and are separate from the Social gathering, and have each incentives of their very own — past, after all, the great of the nation — and massive affect: (1) closest to the social gathering, however not of it: Consultants and strategists. Whichever method the battle goes, they are going to be monumental winners, financially, regardless of the result, whether or not dragging Biden over the end line, turning Kamala into one thing aside from what she is, or bootstrapping Newsom, Whitmer, Pritzker, or somebody as but unknown (2) The nationwide press. With particular person exceptions, we must always not regard the nationwide press as reporters, however as info brokers preferring and promote battle, hoard entry till its influence its biggest (see Nuzzi, supra), (self-)censor some tales and promote others, and so forth, and make a great deal of cash at it, invidually and corporately. That goes double for editors (“Leslie Moonves on Donald Trump: “It Could Not Be Good for America, however It’s Rattling Good for CBS.” And so with the Biden succession disaster). (3) The spooks (overlaps with the press, after all). I discover it excruciatingly attention-grabbing that Kamala at the moment serves on the Homeland Safety and Governmental Affairs Committee and the Choose Committee on Intelligence (“[T]hey have six methods from Sunday at getting again at you“), and that’s not a part of the story. I suppose meaning the spooks are completely happy along with her efficiency. A great factor, no? All this to say that the electeds have rather a lot to think about whereas they’re speaking to their constituents over the break. It will likely be attention-grabbing to see who says what on the Sunday talkshows!

Biden (D) “Pool Studies of June 29, 2024” [The Presidency Project]. A Biden fundraiser within the Hamptons: “Pool is holding in a front room related to the principle home and has been given shoe covers and instructed to put on them.” • “Foot covers”? Why? Someone fearful about monitoring in H5N1? (Sure, there are dairy farms within the Hamptons.)

BIden (D): The person with the perfect observe file speaks:

BREAKING: Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted each election, provides the strongest explanation why Democrats should stand with Biden. Lichtman additionally demolished Donald Trump for mendacity on each query within the debate. Retweet to ensure all People see.pic.twitter.com/OdMDckBCJD

— Biden’s Wins (@BidensWins) June 30, 2024

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Censorship and Propaganda

Elite Maleficence

“COVID-19 can surge all year long” [National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC]. July 3 (!). Slicing some key factors out of the turgid move: (1) “There isn’t a distinct COVID-19 season like there’s for influenza (flu) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).” (2) “Through the summer season and all year long, you need to use many efficient instruments to forestall spreading COVID-19 or turning into significantly unwell.” • In different phrases, in level (1) CDC admits that its whole effort to throw RSV, the flu, and Covid into the identical bucket (and presumably inject everybody for all three on the similar time), is a failure. In level (2), CDC admits that the “vax-only” technique is lifeless, and that layered safety is the best way to go (as many people have been arguing for [family blogging] years. Right here is the picture that accompanies this text (annotated in an earlier Water Cooler):

Now, it’s true that CDC butchered the layers by placing masking underneath “Extra” moderately than “Core” methods (I wish to have been a fly on the wall for that assembly!) However not less than the “dealing with protecting” is white and never (saggy) blue, not less than leaving open the potential of recommending respirators.

“The US Major-Care System Can’t Face up to the Subsequent Pandemic” [Bloomberg]. You imply the one after H5N1? [hollow laughter]. Significantly, if there have been a human-to-human breakout final week, with aerosol transmission, when would we all know? How would we all know? Bloomberg: “A stronger primary-care system received’t forestall the following pandemic. However strengthening the nation’s frontline defenses will lower your expenses and lives — and assist maintain unusual outbreaks at bay.” • Hey, how a couple of resolution that scales? Telehealth with AI-driven avatars! NOTE In the meantime, I maintain nudging folks to straighten out their passports. Even leaving collapse situations apart, having a passport means “entry” to well being care from a human, and also you received’t need to promote a kidney or go in debt for the remainder of your life. Takes a little analysis, nevertheless it’s very do-able. Arbitrage for the remainder of us!

TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 arising on the surface.

[4] (ER) That is the perfect I can do for now. At the very least information for your entire pandemic is introduced.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is appropriate with a wastewater lower, however nonetheless not an excellent feeling .(The NY city space has kind; in 2020, as the house of two worldwide airports (JFK and EWR) it was an necessary entry level for the virus into the nation (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, because the wealthy sought to flee, after which across the nation by means of air journey.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). That is the perfect I can do for now. Word the idea that Covid is seasonal is constructed into the presentation, which in reality reveals that Covid is not seasonal. At the very least information for your entire pandemic is introduced.

[7] (Walgreens) Nonetheless going up! (As a result of there’s information in “present view” tab, I feel white states right here have skilled “no change,” versus haven’t any information.)

[8] (Cleveland) Nonetheless going up!

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up. These sh*theads at CDC have modified the chart in order that it doesn’t even run again to 1/21/23, because it used to, however now begins 1/1/24. There’s additionally no technique to alter the time rasnge. CDC actually doesn’t need you to have the ability to take a historic view of the pandemic, or evaluate one surge to a different. In an any case, that’s why the form of the curve has modified.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) Similar deal. These sh*theads. I’m leaving this right here for one more week as a result of I detest them a lot:

[11] Deaths low, however positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Employment Scenario: “United States Unemployment Price” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment fee in the USA rose to 4.1% in June 2024, the best since November 2021, up from 4% within the earlier month and shocking market expectations, which had forecasted the speed to stay unchanged.”

At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 53 Impartial (earlier shut: 44 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 48 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 5 at 1:04:34 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

“You’re Profitable and Shedding ‘Aura Factors,’ Whether or not You Know It or Not” [Wall Street Journal]. “Getting somebody’s telephone quantity isn’t only a confidence increase—it could possibly additionally internet you 100 aura factors. Tripping once you stroll right into a room, nonetheless, will value you wherever from one to 1,000 aura factors. Aura—a lighthearted quantification of an individual’s cool issue—has shortly develop into the slang of the second amongst tweens, teenagers and 20-somethings. What began with college students in school rooms and commenters on-line has grown sufficiently big that shoe manufacturers and political events at the moment are adopting the time period, giving and taking away factors at whim. Aura, or constructive aura factors, are a praise. ‘When you’ve got a very, actually, actually good aura, I really feel like that actually interprets from on-line to the opposite aspect of the telephone,’ stated Hina Sabatine, a 27-year-old influencer based mostly in Los Angeles. ‘Some folks simply have it.’” • I ponder if cash helps. (One of many nicer issues to ponder a couple of post-Jackpot world is that there received’t be any extra influencers. No extra [glass bowls] doing a number of takes on the gymnasium tools you wish to use.

Information of the Wired

“A panorama of consciousness: Towards a taxonomy of explanations and implications” [Progress in Biophysics and Molecular Biology]. “I flip once more to Jerry Fodor and his pithy appraisal of consciousness theories: ‘No person has the slightest thought how something materials could possibly be aware. No person even is aware of what it might be wish to have the slightest thought about how something materials could possibly be aware’ (Fodor, 1992). Scanning the Panorama, I’d wish to say we have now progressed. I’m undecided I can. Those that write about consciousness wish to quote, with bemused irony, psychologist Stuart Sutherland’s cautionary phrases: ‘Consciousness is an interesting however elusive phenomenon; it’s unattainable to specify what it’s, what it does, or why it advanced. Nothing price studying has been written on it’ (Sutherland, 1989).”

“Ought to this be a map or 500 maps?” [escape the map]. “On the finish of the 18th century, Spain’s official geographer, Tomás Lopez, was requested by the King to create an correct map of the dominion. In an try to delegate the herculean labour required, Tomás drew a sequence of circles, picked the city within the middle of every circle, and requested the native priest to reply a questionnaire and draw up a map of their province. The purpose was to amalgamate the responses right into a single map. However none of those clergymen have been skilled in cartography, and plenty of of them would have had restricted entry to maps in any respect.2 Nonetheless, 500 of them tried. In a single map, your entire area is represented just by a sequence of letters (“A” for church, “B” for hermitage, “C” for home, “D” for tree, and so forth). One other represents the encompassing villages as if they’re orbiting planets. In some, the handwriting varieties the topographies. In others, descriptive columns of textual content take middle stage, as if the language itself is a landmark. Every priest implicitly reveals how they see the world round them, and the relative significance of its constituent components: nature or folks, faith or commerce, structure or panorama, precision or vibes…. Tomás tried for years to reconcile these mosaic shards with one another…. omás’ experiment failed. It failed as a result of every beginner cartographer injected their very own methodology and course of, leading to incompatible maps. However in one other sense, Tomás succeeded. Certain, perhaps this assortment of artifacts could be ineffective for army technique or commerce, however however… LOOK AT THESE MAPS, THESE MAPS RULE.” • For instance:

Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are wonderful! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Carla:

Carla writes: “Lately, there was point out on NC of the worth of feverfew as an natural pain-killer, with the declare {that a} robust tea constructed from the leaves is as efficient as extra-strength excedrin. I really like the plant because it makes a reasonably present, & a stunning filler for bouquets. It additionally has an astringent scent I discover fairly interesting. Warning: it’s invasive as heck, and pops up all over the place. However I simply pull it up the place I don’t need it. Right here it’s backing up thyme & oregano, plus a close-up of the cheerful blooms.”

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