2:00PM Water Cooler 10/14/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Track of the Day

Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Antigua Guatemala–Cerro de la Cruz, Sacatepéquez, Guatemala.

1. Democrat bedwetting
2. Kamala messaging disasters: Walz goes searching, manly males, Obama and black males
3. Walz oppo bubbles up, not but popped.
4. Labor Secretary Su flies to Seattle, Boeing’s doom loop.

1. Democrat bedwetting
2. Kamala messaging disasters: Walz goes searching, manly males, Obama and black males
3. Labor Secretary Su flies to Seattle, Boeing’s doom loop.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Lower than thirty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:

In case you ignore the whole idea of margin of error and go together with the narrative, one other good week for Trump, particularly in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, within the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. In fact, we on the skin would possibly as properly be analyzing the entrails of birds once we attempt to predict what is going to occur to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars particularly would possibly as properly be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher information, and have the state of affairs as beneath management as it may be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

* * *

“‘This Is Going To Be Too Shut for Consolation’ David Plouffe on the state of play for his boss, Kamala Harris, and what he thinks of the ‘bed-wetters.’” (interview) [David Plouffe, New York Magazine]. Plouffe: “There are independents. Most independents behave in most elections like Democrats or Republicans, however there are some within the center that undoubtedly fluctuate election to election. They are usually overrepresented within the true swing voter universe however there are a bunch of those independents who usually think about themselves Republicans who’re repelled by Trump. And so that you ask: How can we go from principally 48 to 50? Properly, it’s going to be a few of these voters. It’s going to be ensuring we do an excellent job of turnout, it’s going to be essential that we maximize our vote share amongst Democrats, and we expect we’re headed to an exceedingly excessive quantity there. I’ll say: Turnout is essential to us. We’re spending a number of time on it, some huge cash on it, a number of power on it. However I feel — and that is uncommon, as a result of often this describes Democrats — . And he’s obtained rather a lot using on that. It doesn’t appear to be that he has constructed the type of operation within the battleground states that might be per executing on that…. What’s completely different this time than ’16 and even ’20 is he actually is reliant on lots of people who’ve by no means voted earlier than, have by no means voted for a Republican earlier than, or have perhaps voted in one of many final 4 elections. I’m unsure they’ve constructed the group for that.” • Attention-grabbing that Plouffe accepts Brownstein’s idea of the case case that irregular voters are key. Much more apparently, Plouffe thinks that the Trump marketing campaign is “fragile” as a result of its attempting to increase the voters in a means they aren’t.

“Harris dropping floor with younger Latino males, unique USA-TODAY polls discover” [MSN]. “Vice President Kamala Harris is dropping assist amongst younger Latino males, whilst she continues to carry a lead over Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump amongst Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada – two key states that may assist decide the 2024 election, in line with two unique new USA TODAY/Suffolk College polls… David Paleologos, director of Suffolk College Political Analysis Middle, mentioned whereas it’s excellent news for Harris that she’s main with Latino voters in each states, the present margin possible gained’t be sufficient for her to say victories there. ‘It’s solely younger folks and males, however that offset … is the rationale why Harris’ numbers aren’t the place they need to be (for her to win),’ Paleologos mentioned. Harris’ polling in each states amongst Latino voters is barely trailing the place Biden was in 2020.”

* * *

Kamala (D): “Walz goes pheasant searching together with his personal Beretta as marketing campaign makes attraction to gun homeowners” [CBS]. “Sleepy Eye, Minnesota — Carrying a Beretta shotgun, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz trekked by tall straw-like grass for 3 hours on Saturday for opening day of the state’s pheasant searching season, however didn’t get one shot off regardless of his efforts. ‘There’s good days and there’s nice days pheasant searching,’ Walz mentioned when the day wrapped up.”

Dangerous staffwork on a number of ranges right here. Depart all the pieces else apart, together with the crass stereotyping. Did they haven’t any subject material knowledgeable to seek the advice of to verify Walz’s gun was the precise type of gun? And you may say Walz ought to have recognized, but it surely’s nonetheless the workers’s job to stop gaffes. Now the marketing campaign is worse off than earlier than; each pandering and ineffective.

Kamala (D): “Dude…No! Professional-Kamala Harris advert focusing on ‘actual males’ is mocked because the ‘cringiest ever created’: ‘Have they ever met a male human?’” [Daily Mail]. “The video options numerous males declaring their curiosity in ‘manly clichés’ like bears, consuming bourbon, consuming steaks, fixing automobiles, and lifting weights… The advert options males with horses, bikes, in a mechanics store, sitting on a truck, lifting weights, or leaning towards a fence… It was shared on the VoteSaveAmerica social media pages, organized by the Crooked.com group that runs Pod Save America.” • In your delectation, right here’s the advert:

(“If you must say it….”) Jogs my memory of this well-known video from again within the day (so denatured Trump performs it at rallies):

Kamala’s supporters have simply swapped in several, extra up-to-date male stereotypes (which, I suppose, is what identification politcs is all about).

* * *

Waltz oppo:

Right here is the present declare, from @DocNetyoutube:

Final evening, I used to be given a press release from the sufferer of Tim Walz to launch this morning. I need to inform you; the sufferer has by no means informed me of his intent to carry Tim Walz to courtroom. I assume this implies attempting to hunt authorized recourse, if attainable, in a felony courtroom.

I even have seen… pic.twitter.com/KbGDOiiKBF

— Black Insurrectionist–I FOLLOW BACK TRUE PATRIOTS (@DocNetyoutube) October 14, 2024

>

Large if true. Earlier on this emergent thread, the accuser claimed to have been by Walz to an Indigo Ladies live performance, as a minor, and abused. (Curiously, the one that would appear to have been @DocNetyoutube’s sufferer has already introduced himself: “Tim and Gwen Walz have been my lecturers in highschool. That story within the New York Occasions about them taking a homosexual scholar to an Indigo Ladies live performance—that scholar was me!”) Within the above Tweet, the accuser expands his authentic claims to incorporate a rustic live performance, and a China journey, on which he claims to have gone. (Right here is an outline of a China journey; one other.) Lastly, the political dynamite (1): “When Tim Walz acquired his DUI [sic]. It was after a night with me” (“his DUI. It was” is within the authentic); and (2) a Chinese language image tatooed on Walz’s higher thigh, and “a small scar on his left arm” (jogs my memory of Paula Jones on Invoice Clinton’s misshapen member). The accuser could come ahead (“later”):

He has agreed to. I’ll announce later..

— Black Insurrectionist–I FOLLOW BACK TRUE PATRIOTS (@DocNetyoutube) October 14, 2024

What I might anticipate reporters, if any nonetheless stay, to do: (1) Discover the accuser; if certainly he went on the China journey, it shouldn’t be that tough; (2) interview the opposite China journey contributors; what did they witness, if something; (3) straighten out the concert events. Had been there one or two Indigo Ladies concert events; (4) straighten out the timeline. We have now the concert events, the China journeys, the DUI, Walz’s resignation from the Nebraska college system, and the Walzes shifting to a brand new college system in Minnesota. I don’t have time to place that sequence collectively and match it as much as the accusations.

* * *

In the meantime, @DocNetyoutube has type:

“EXCLUSIVE: X Person ‘Black Insurrectionist’ Agrees to Put Gateway Pundit in Contact with Alleged ABC Whistleblower’s Lawyer After Releasing ‘Affidavit’ on Debate Rigging Scandal” [Gateway Pundit]. However: “The Gateway Pundit can not but independently confirm these allegations, however our authorized crew has reached out to Black Insurrectionist, who agreed to facilitate contact with the whistleblower’s lawyer. In trade for preserving the whistleblower’s identification confidential, an interview could possibly be organized to additional examine the claims.” • To my data, there was no interview.

“ABC Lastly Addresses MAGA ‘Affidavit’ Claiming It Helped Harris Win Debate” [Daily Beast]. “The “Black Insurrectionist” account, having grown by practically 30,000 followers, finally shared the six-page ‘affidavit’ on Sunday. The doc is dated Sept. 9, the day earlier than the controversy. The particular person—whose identify, deal with, and signature are blacked out, apart from they stay in ‘Manhattan New York’ [sic]—alleges they’ve been with ‘ABC Information’ for over 10 years, however they’ve in some way noticed ‘important transformations within the nature of stories reporting on the group’ because it was acquired by Disney in 1996.” And: “The doc additionally claims to have been verified by a notary public, although the doc doesn’t present a notary seal.” Nevertheless it will get higher: “An article on a little-known weblog indicated the alleged whistleblower had been killed in a automotive crash earlier than they may unveil the affidavit. That proposition was pushed by Greene on X, who claimed that the whistleblower had died ‘in line with information stories.’ She then retracted the declare and demanded a ‘critical investigation’ into the doc. Even the Gateway Pundit, a far-right web site that delves into misinformation and false tales, warned its readers: ‘It’s clear to us that this can be a full hoax.’ (The “Black Insurrectionist” account later claimed they put the web site in contact with the whistleblower’s lawyer.)” • A automotive crash. How handy. And if the truth is the whistleblower had an lawyer, nothing got here of it. Apparently, the entire thing was an excessive amount of even for Gateway Pundit, which isn’t squeamish.

* * *

Lastly, the Black Insurrectionist tweet storm that began all of it was spun out in a number of, impropertly threaded, tweets, and it too is slightly sketchy. @AgentSelf99B examines the accuser’s putatively authentic emails, as offered within the type of display screen dumps by Black Insurrectionist’s account:

There’s extra, however that’s all for now.

* * *

Once more, large if true. Perhaps Black Insurrectionist obtained fortunate, and the accuser will really come ahead to be vetted. I can properly consider that the Kamala operation butchered this. Nonetheless, “that’s what they might do” doesn’t imply that’s what they did (at the least for an accusation like this).

* * *

Kamala (D): “Barack Obama’s Tiresome Condescension Towards Black Males” [New York Magazine]. “One needn’t equivocate to acknowledge that there are substantive causes for Black voters to reject Democrats like Obama and Harris on the identical foundation as they do Republicans. The framework Obama makes use of leaves little room for misgivings about the truth that Harris goes to nice lengths to break down the space between herself and the GOP. When she realized that former vice-president Dick Cheney, a chief architect of america’ atrocities throughout the Warfare on Terror, was planning to vote for her, Harris unironically thanked him for ‘what he has achieved to serve our nation.’ She has turn out to be extra hawkish on immigration in response to Trump’s bare xenophobia, and she or he has recommitted to unconditionally sending arms to Israel amid its slaughter of Gazan and Lebanese civilians — a dogmatic place held by Democratic and Republican administrations alike, together with Biden’s and Trump’s. Throughout a current look on ABC’s The View, Harris appeared to flub a simple alternative to distance herself from the unpopular incumbent when she struggled to elucidate how she would govern in another way. However she recovered later that day by reiterating an earlier promise that, not like Biden, she would appoint a Republican to her Cupboard.” • Commentary:

I’ve met just about all the preferred Dems or at the least been in areas with them once we unionized Amazon. One one who I’ve by no means heard from until this date not even to congratulate staff preventing again is Barrack Obama. He can’t preach that Black man brother speak to me.

— Christian Smalls (@Shut_downAmazon) October 13, 2024

* * *

“Why historian who precisely predicts elections says October shock is a ‘fantasy’” [USA Today]. Allan Lichtman, the historian who accurately predicted 9 of the ten most up-to-date presidential elections, mentioned in an interview that any October shock that would upend the 2024 presidential race is a ‘fantasy.’ Lichtman: “[I]t’s governing, not campaigning that counts. …[T]his complete concept of an October shock is a big fantasy,’ he mentioned. ‘I’ve all the time made my predictions earlier than then, and by no means change them.’”

* * *

MI: “Harris’ struggles with Michigan’s working-class voters gives opening for Trump, GOP” [FOX]. “In response to a report in The Wall Avenue Journal on Tuesday, distinguished Michigan Democrats, together with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, have made appeals to the Harris marketing campaign to concentrate on the state extra because the election attracts to an in depth. They’ve additionally warned Harris to sharpen her financial messaging, the report notes, with fears spreading that Trump has achieved properly to courtroom the state’s working class voters. Harris’ struggles have additionally prolonged to union members, a bunch that has lengthy been a stronghold for Democrats within the state. Nonetheless, an inside ballot performed by Teamsters, one of many nation’s largest and most influential unions, discovered that members in Michigan most popular Trump (61.7%) over Harris (35.2%), whereas nationwide union leaders declined to make an endorsement on this 12 months’s presidential race, regardless of supporting President Biden’s marketing campaign in 2020. Harris additionally failed to achieve the assist of the Worldwide Affiliation of Fireplace Fighters, which additionally supported Biden in 2020, although she did acquire the assist of each United Auto Staff and the Service Workers Worldwide Union.” • I can’t think about Whitmer’s current “bizarre” video helped.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly jumped to 11.5 in September 2024, the very best since April 2022, in comparison with -4.7 in August and forecasts of -3.9.”

Manfacturing: “Appearing US Labor Secretary intervenes to attempt to finish Boeing standoff with union” [Reuters]. “U.S. Appearing Labor Secretary Julie Su flew to Seattle to intervene within the labor dispute between Boeing and about 33,000 putting staff that threatens the debt-laden firm’s funds.” And: “The most recent disaster comes as Boeing’s markets are rising and plenty of of its rivals are scooping up scarce labour to alleviate strain on aerospace provide chains. ‘The trick shall be not dropping the ten% of individuals you need to preserve, which is much more essential than standard within the publish pandemic talent scarcity atmosphere,’ mentioned Company Companions analyst Nick Cunningham.” • The pandemic atmosphere isn’t “publish,” however however.

Manufacturing: “Boeing shares aren’t a purchase but” [The Street]. “The inventory will nearly definitely see unstable buying and selling this week. What you need to see is a backside that holds. To get there most likely requires these parts: Peace between labor and the corporate… Assure of labor within the Puget Sound area…. Shoring up Boeing’s capital place…. Peace with the regulators…. Peace with all of the folks suing Boeing over the 2018 and 2019 crashes.” • Various Ortberg’s plate.

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s infinite doom loop provides no respite to new CEO Ortberg” [Fortune]. “[W]ith so-called contact labor accounting for lower than 5% for the full value of a business plane program, some observers marvel why Boeing isn’t shifting with extra urgency to finish the work stoppage that’s including to its monetary misery. ‘It’s not a needle mover by way of Boeing profitability,’ mentioned Ken Herbert, analyst with RBC Capital Markets. ‘What are we ready for right here? Each day that goes by, it’s extra disruptive and extra of a money drain.’” • Good query!

Manufacturing: “Emirates to Have Severe Talks with Boeing over New 777X Delays” [Aviation A2Z]. “Emirates President Tim Clark expressed skepticism about Boeing’s skill to forecast supply dates precisely. He highlighted the Sort Inspection Authorisation halt on the 777X and the extended union strikes as main obstacles. The 777X is essential for Emirates’ future wide-body fleet technique, particularly since Airbus has ceased A380 manufacturing. Clark revealed that Emirates has made important and dear amendments to its fleet applications as a consequence of Boeing’s ‘a number of contractual shortfalls.’ … Plane delays have turn out to be an industry-wide concern, affecting each Boeing and Airbus. Airways resort to preserving older plane operational longer, typically retrofitting them at important value.”

In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 77 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 74 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 69 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 14 at 1:16:35 PM ET. • FIrst transition to Excessive Greed for awhile!

Picture Ebook

“A window coated with raindrops pursuits me greater than {a photograph} of a well-known particular person.” –Saul Leiter

Zeitgeist Watch

Gallery

“An Astronomer Has Recognized the Village Highway in This Van Gogh Portray” [Artnet]. “Having the ability to pinpoint a exact location of an space depicted in an paintings often isn’t a precise science. Nonetheless, Donald Olson, an astrophysicist and forensic astronomer on the State College System Regent, has used his scientific coaching to find out the place Vincent van Gogh’s iconic 1884 work, Lane of Poplars at Sundown (now held by the Kröller-Müller Museum within the Netherlands), was the truth is painted.” • The logic is simply too advanced to excerpt, however right here’s the portray:

Permaculture

Right, in my opinion:

Carbon seize? Feh!

Information of the Wired

“the quiet artwork of consideration” [stormrider]. “The thoughts, like a backyard, requires tending. It wants persistence, a gradual hand, and, above all, consistency. There shall be days when it appears unruly, when previous habits return, and when focus feels elusive. However as of late, too, are a part of the method. Every small effort, every second of renewed consideration, builds upon the final. Over time, these moments accumulate, and what was as soon as troublesome turns into second nature. And so, the journey to mastery of the thoughts begins not with grand gestures however with the best of practices: the apply of paying consideration. Consideration to the current, consideration to what really issues, and a spotlight to the quiet areas in between. On this means, step-by-step, thought by thought, we transfer nearer to that elusive state of readability, of peace, and of freedom.”

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AM writes: “Excessive grass within the foreground, view in the direction of Edinburgh within the distance from the #2 course at Gullane, Scotland in mid July, 2024.”

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