By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chook Track of the Day
Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Montaña de Izopo–Sector Las Moras, Francisco Morazán, Honduras. “Longer lower of quiet track of clipped low phrases with sudden louder bursts interspersed, together with mechanical-sounding vocalizations. Additionally heard are Painted Redstart, Dusky-capped Flycatcher, Wilson’s Warbler, Orange-billed Nightingale-Thrush, and Furry Woodpecker.”
In Case You May Miss…
- CIA Democrats.
- Kamala and Biden groups at odds.
- Trump singing and dancing City Corridor not the debacle portrayed.
- Boeing to borrow billions, delays 777X, plans drastic white-collar cuts.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Lower than thirty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:
In case you ignore all the idea of margin of error and go along with the narrative, one other good week for Trump, particularly in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, within the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. After all, we on the surface would possibly as effectively be analyzing the entrails of birds once we attempt to predict what’s going to occur to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars particularly would possibly as effectively be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher knowledge, and have the state of affairs as underneath management as it may be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * “Trump is in a greater polling spot now than he was in opposition to Clinton or Biden” [USA Today]. “If polls are any information – and there are a lot of questions on them – Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is in higher form now than he was right now in 2020 and in his successful White Home marketing campaign of 2016. Sure, Trump trails Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in most polls. However the all-important caveat is that he’s down in opposition to the incumbent vp by smaller margins than he confronted in his first two basic elections – each of which noticed him rating increased with precise voters than those who responded to pollsters.” • Helpful chart:
* * * Kamala (D): “Tensions rise between Harris and Biden groups as election nears” [Axios]. “Biden gave an impromptu press convention within the White Home briefing room Friday simply as Harris was about to do an occasion in Michigan, guaranteeing that her occasion would get much less TV protection than it in any other case would have. Earlier within the week, Harris criticized Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) for not taking her name in regards to the latest hurricanes, just for Biden to reward DeSantis quickly after for being ‘gracious’ and ‘cooperative.’ (An individual aware of the state of affairs informed Axios that Biden hadn’t been briefed on Harris’ feedback.) Biden has been desperate to boast a few strong jobs report, serving to to finish the strike by the longshoremen’s union and different perceived victories lately. Harris has been attempting to deal with voters’ pocketbook considerations, together with inflation. One individual concerned with Harris’ marketing campaign informed Axios: ‘The White Home is missing somebody within the room pondering in the beginning about how issues would have an effect on the marketing campaign.’” • I’m beginning to suppose “room” must be a kind of phrases. When you discover it, it’s in every single place. Began witb “adults within the room,” I believe. Keep in mind them?
Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris’ press tour was a missed alternative” [MSNBC]. “And that’s the downside: The Harris marketing campaign performed this tour not as a result of it had one thing new to say, however as a result of it wanted to redirect the media narrative about its candidate. ‘There may be at occasions an impression that her marketing campaign consists virtually fully of pivots,’ Alex Shephard well noticed in The New Republic earlier this week, whereas a New York Occasions headline stated she ‘Continues to Bob and Weave’ in interviews. All of it provides to the very temper the press tour was alleged to dispel.” And: “Because the media tour got here to a detailed with a Univision city corridor on Thursday night time, I used to be left with the identical obscure impression I had earlier than the press tour — which makes that tour a large missed alternative. There was no second akin to Invoice Clinton blowing the horn on ‘The Arsenio Corridor Present’ in 1992, nothing stunning or sudden. Working out the clock might [???] not be an choice. ‘Polls coming in present Harris peaked and interviews not serving to. Swing states trending away from Harris,’ veteran pollster Mark Penn wrote in a social media publish. ‘It’s not over till it’s over and that is nonetheless on a razor’s edge so it might flip again however that’s a good learn of latest polling.’ And in The New York Occasions, the previous Obama communications director Daniel Pfeiffer identified that Trump is making vital inroads with youthful males by showing on nontraditional podcasts and streaming exhibits. Pfeiffer noticed that 13 million folks watched Trump’s interview with comic Theo Von, ‘about twice the viewership of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz’s a lot ballyhooed interview with Dana Bash of CNN.’”
Kamala (D): “Contained in the media blitz: three days on the marketing campaign path with Kamala Harris” [Guardian]. “She was snug in her pores and skin.” • I haven’t heard that one deployed in years.
Kamala (D): A lot for Black Insurrectionist? He of the Tim Walz oppo?
Why did Black Insurrectionist change his bio since yesterday? The place’s the subsequent drops? I believe I’ve/we’ve been duped pic.twitter.com/cX0uU6mKm1
— 🇺🇸ULTRA MAGA 1776🇺🇸 (@MAGAMARIE3) October 14, 2024
Word the followers on the left hand display screen shot, who disappeared on the precise hand display screen shot. And once you’ve misplaced Megyn Kelly:
I don’t know whether or not the stuff being peddled by a sure X account re: Tim Walz has even a scintilla of reality behind it. I see the numerous apparent crimson flags.
What I can report is {that a} month in the past this identical account claimed he had an ABC whistleblower (1) alleging severe moral…— Megyn Kelly (@megynkelly) October 14, 2024
* * * Kamala (D): “Democratic voter registration raises crimson flags for Harris” [The Hill]. “Democrats’ voter registration benefit has dropped in three key battleground states — Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada — elevating a crimson flag for Vice President Harris as specialists cite a scarcity of enthusiasm for the Biden administration model and the Democratic Celebration, typically, as issues.” And: “David Paleologos, the director of the Political Analysis Middle at Suffolk College in Boston, stated Democrats had a few 666,000-person voter registration benefit over Republicans in Pennsylvania in 2020, which has shrunk to a 354,000-person benefit in 2024. He stated the Democrats’ voter registration benefit in North Carolina has shrunk from 393,000 voters in 2020 to roughly 130,000 voters in 2024. ‘The overall shift has been away from being registered as a Democrat during the last 4 years,’ Paleologos informed The Hill.’ It’s been extra of a lower of registered Democrats’ than a surge in Republican voter registrations, he defined. ‘I don’t suppose lots of people have actually put their arms round the truth that when Trump received North Carolina in 2020, there have been like 390,000 extra registered Democrats and he nonetheless received, and right this moment the benefit of Democrats over Republicans is barely like 130,000. It’s been lower by two-thirds of a bonus,” he stated.” And: “In Nevada, Paleologos stated Democrats have seen their voter registration benefit fall away. He stated Democrats’ had a web registration benefit of practically 79,000 in 2020. It has since fallen to a web benefit of 29,000 registered voters. ‘It may very well be sufficient to maintain it shut, or it may go to Trump, simply because they’ve misplaced 50,000 web registered Democrats,’ he stated.” •
Kamala (D): “CNN’s Enten: GOP Has Made Huge Positive aspects In Celebration Registration, Identification Since 2020” [RealClearPolitics]. “CNN’s Harry Enten checked out get together registration knowledge within the swing states and nationally forward of the 2024 election, which he says in comparison with previous elections, suggests Republicans are on observe to win…. The query is: The place are they selecting up floor? This, to me, says all of it. In case you take a look at Pennsylvania counties the place the GOP has gained in registration, in counties the place lower than 50% of the inhabitants is non-college white voters, Republicans have gained only a level. However in areas the place over 50% are non-college whites, take a look at this—Republicans have gained six factors on common. They’re selecting up floor within the areas you’d count on: non-college white-dominated areas, coal nation within the northeast, southwest outdoors of Pittsburgh. The underside line is, the registration tendencies we’ve been seeing over the previous few cycles — with Republicans dominating amongst non-college white voters — are very a lot exhibiting up in get together registration.” And: “Celebration registration is once you’re really registered with a celebration. Celebration ID is once you say, ‘I really feel like a Democrat right this moment’ or ‘I really feel like a Republican.’ They’re correlated, however they’re not precisely the identical. The GOP leads by some extent in get together identification proper now. The common when the Republican Celebration loses is the Democrats forward by eight. When the Republican Celebration wins, the common get together ID benefit for Democrats is at three. Republicans proper now, are doing even higher than the common after they win. If there’s one little nugget that I believe Republicans are actually useful for this get together ID and this get together registration knowledge, it actually factors in a superb path for them and for Donald Trump.”
“Harris rallies in a Pennsylvania bellwether county, calling Trump too ‘unstable and unhinged’ to be president” [NBC]. “To make up for any losses in rural areas, Harris’ marketing campaign has sought to courtroom Nikki Haley voters from the GOP primaries, who’re concentrated largely in well-educated suburbs and will assist Harris develop her coalition and enhance on Biden’s 2020 margins.” • Therefore, Dick Cheney’s spawn.
* * * Kamala (D): “Harris Fights to Counter Trump’s Enchantment With Black Males” [Wall Street Journal]. On Obama’s intervention: “”‘Whereas I perceive the sentiment of getting a need to see elevated engagement, chastising voters has by no means labored, and it received’t work this time both,’ stated [Quentin James, founder and president of the Collective PAC, a pro-Harris group], who gave the Harris marketing campaign suggestions on the brand new set of insurance policies rolled out on Monday aimed toward enhancing the financial place of Black males. Requested if it might be useful for Obama to reiterate these feedback at future marketing campaign stops, James stated: ‘If the objective is to extend Black male engagement, hell no.’” Extra: “The brand new insurance policies and soccer meetup [stereotype] are a part of Harris’s newest efforts to achieve out to Black males, a core constituency for the get together. Polling exhibits a possible lack of enthusiasm amongst these voters with early voting already underneath means in some states. Securing the help of Black males may show decisive in key battleground races, notably as Harris makes an attempt to drive up turnout in locations like Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta. The vp needs to supply a million forgivable enterprise loans for Black entrepreneurs to make use of to start out companies, create extra coaching and apprenticeship packages and research ailments, akin to diabetes and sickle cell anemia, that predominantly have an effect on Black males…. The Harris marketing campaign’s self-described ‘alternative agenda for Black males’ would regulate cryptocurrency and digital currencies to guard Black buyers, promote extra Black males into the instructing career and reiterate the vp’s help for legalizing marijuana.” • Perhaps I didn’t get the memo, however I don’t see how crypto suits in right here. Additionally, talking of an “alternative financial system,” how about an amnesty for the marijuana growers and sellers who constructed a enterprise sector now value billions? Legalization isn’t sufficient.
Kamala (D): Perhaps the the “Manly Man” advert wasn’t aimed toward males in any respect? Hat tip Nippersdad:
Perhaps I’m assuming the Harris hive thoughts is extra Machiavellian than it truly is, however perhaps the advert — hear me out — was aimed toward suburban girls? (“We promise males will likely be as males are on this advert”). Form of a really gentle contact model of Lysistratic Non-Motion. Only a thought! And on white girls:
Harris is doing the perfect for a Democratic presidential candidate amongst white girls within the twenty first century… That is huge trigger they make up such a big chunk of the citizens…
Why is Harris doing so effectively? It will seem that abortion rights is a driving drive… pic.twitter.com/zQHFifAwcf
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 15, 2024
* * * Trump (R): “Trump’s Pennsylvania city corridor, interrupted by medical emergencies in crowd, become an impromptu live performance” [ABC]. “Former President Donald Trump’s city corridor in Oaks, Pennsylvania, on Monday night was interrupted twice by medical emergencies in a really heat Higher Philadelphia Expo Middle and Fairgrounds earlier than he pivoted — turning the live performance into an impromptu live performance the place he stood on stage swaying to music for practically 45 minutes. There was a medical emergency that required an attendee to be positioned on a stretcher about half-hour into the occasion. As the gang began singing ‘God Bless America,’ Trump requested that ‘Ave Maria’ be performed on the loudspeakers as medics tended to the person. Moments later, there was a second medical emergency…. Following the medical emergencies, Trump requested that the doorways be opened however he was suggested that for safety causes that wasn’t potential. Each Trump and moderator South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem commented on the warmth within the room…. He continued, “Let’s not do any extra questions. Let’s simply take heed to music. Let’s make it right into a music fest. Who the hell needs to listen to questions proper? Isn’t that lovely?” The previous president, adamant about enjoying his music, stood on stage for practically 45 minutes swaying to a number of songs on his playlist as the gang sang and danced alongside. The gang slowly dispersed, however many stayed for everything of the marketing campaign occasion.” ¨• There’s lots of dogpiling over this on the Twitter, but when the gang was singing and dancing alongside, and so they didn’t go away, I believe that’s nice, and nice word-of-mouth for Trump (jogs my memory of a Grateful Lifeless live performance when the sound system failed). Exhausting to think about Kamala doing this (no expertise with present enterprise, no comparable connection to the gang, I’m guessing, and no capability to improvise as Trump did. I think about the employees would have shut the rally down fully, which would have been a debacle).
* * * PA: “Harris rallies in a Pennsylvania bellwether county, calling Trump too ‘unstable and unhinged’ to be president” [NBC]. “ERIE, Pa. — Vice President Kamala Harris rallied a packed crowd Monday night time in Erie County, a bellwether that has a knack for predicting who carries Pennsylvania, having mirrored the result of this significant battleground state within the final 4 elections. Harris sharpened her assaults on Donald Trump, utilizing an enormous display screen to play clips of the previous president calling for outlawing dissent and criticisms amongst ‘the enemy inside.’” The massive display screen is new, I believe. Extra: “[Erie’s] median revenue is decrease than the nationwide common, as is its share of college-educated folks…. Fetterman received the state by maximizing votes within the metropolitan areas and limiting his margins of defeat within the red-trending rural areas. Now, he’s attempting to assist Harris do the identical. Whereas Obama and Gov. Josh Shapiro rallied Thursday in Pittsburgh, Fetterman toured the crimson counties to make the case for her…. ‘Generally it’s not about turning these counties blue. You’re not going to alter the tradition of rural-county Pennsylvania. It’s about reaching out to reachable folks,’ he stated. ‘I’d be stunned if she wins by 3 factors. She is going to win Pennsylvania, however I’d count on it may be nearer than that.’”
PA: “How Pittsburgh’s Suburbs May Flip Pennsylvania to Trump” [RealClearPennsylvania]. ” As an alternative, the main focus lies on subdivision-spawned locations like Cranberry Township to the north, the bed room communities of southern Butler County, and the once-solid Rust Belt Democrat precincts of Washington County to the south. These areas, a lot of which have been dependable elements of the Democratic coalition for the reason that time of the New Deal, are trending Republican in ways in which ought to alarm get together strategists. This oversight is partly comprehensible – the Philadelphia metro space is considerably bigger (6.3 million folks versus Pittsburgh’s 2.37 million), richer, and a number of other hours nearer to main media markets. But it surely’s a mistake that might result in how-could-it-happen-here headlines on election night time if the GOP secures a win on the again of southwestern Pennsylvania’s suburban voters. The numbers paint a stark image of this evolution. In 2000, Democrats carried Allegheny County, dwelling to Pittsburgh, plus the seven surrounding counties by practically 86,000 votes. By 2020, regardless of huge Democratic positive factors inside Pittsburgh metropolis limits, this identical area swung to the Republicans by 38,000 votes. In a state determined by razor-thin margins in latest presidential contests, this 124,000-vote swing is seismic. Cranberry Township exemplifies this alteration. As soon as a sleepy rural group, it’s now a booming strip mall and chain eatery-lined suburb of over 30,000 folks, greater than 90% of whom are white, with a decidedly Republican lean. In 2020, Donald Trump carried Cranberry with over 60% of the vote, a margin unthinkable just some a long time in the past when union-affiliated Democratic voters dominated the area. The transformation is much more pronounced in Washington County, as soon as the very definition of a union stronghold. Trump received the county by a staggering 22-point margin in 2020.”
PA: “Per week in a swing state taught me loads in regards to the Maga cult, and gave me hope for Kamala Harris” [Guardian]. Value a learn, however holy moley. This editorial notice sums it up: “This text was amended on 13 October 2024 as a result of an earlier model stated that Hurricane Helene “ripped via the south-west”. In reality the hurricane affected the south-east area.” Here’s a author who actually is aware of America!
Spook Nation
“FBI’s function in Hunter Biden laptop computer scandal is worse than you already know” [Andrew McCarthy, FOX]. “Nonetheless, the enduring relevance of the laptop computer isn’t as a Biden story, however as a narrative of the political corruption of the federal government’s law-enforcement and intelligence equipment – pillars of our rule of legislation and our nationwide safety. Take into consideration this: The FBI took possession of the laptop computer in December 2019, and shortly authenticated it – not onerous to do as a result of there was a mountain of publicly accessible data for functions of corroborating the info, which was incontestably Hunter Biden’s. What’s the importance of that? Nicely, Election Day wasn’t till November 3, 2020. Therefore, whereas early voting was already underway within the weeks earlier than the election, the FBI had already recognized for practically a yr that the laptop computer was the actual deal. Regardless of that, the bureau induced main social media titans, akin to Twitter (now X) and Fb, to suppress derogatory reporting in regards to the Bidens – particularly, the New York Submit’s mid-October 2020 reporting on the laptop computer. How? By deceptively intimating that the Submit’s reporting was seemingly the results of an affect operation carried out by Russian intelligence. In actuality, this was an affect operation carried out by present and former U.S. intelligence officers. The FBI was not alone. The federal government’s ‘Intelligence Neighborhood’ routinely shares data. The IC, too, is liable to hype Russian ‘interference’ in U.S. elections. But, such ‘affect operations’ are longstanding: Moscow interfered in American politics all through the Chilly Battle; it has continued to take action for the reason that Soviet Union’s fall as much as the current day. Affect ops are additionally reciprocal: U.S. spy companies routinely sought to affect Soviet politics and, now, search to undermine Putin. In the event that they didn’t, what good would they be? For all of the heavy-breathing by the media-Democrat complicated, trendy Russia is a basket-case nation run by a mafia-style regime whose election-influence ops are sometimes laughably amateurish. They’re, furthermore, a negligible ripple within the multi-billion-dollar ocean of American marketing campaign messaging.”
Democrats en Déshabillé
“The CIA Democrats within the 2024 elections” [WSWS] From September. “There are 34 Democrats drawn from the ranks of the military-intelligence equipment who’re operating for Congress this yr, a continuation of the inflow that started in drive in 2018. For the fourth consecutive election, the CIA Democrats will develop in affect and numbers, additional cementing the ties between this huge enterprise get together and essentially the most deadly companies of the capitalist state…. Apart from the numerical enhance, the inflow of CIA Democrats is escalating qualitatively. Two of the unique class of CIA Democrats who received seats within the Home of Representatives in 2018 are actually in search of to maneuver as much as the Senate. Former CIA agent and Pentagon official Elissa Slotkin is giving up her Michigan Home seat to run for the Senate seat left vacant by the retirement of three-term Senator Debbie Stabenow. Former Nationwide Safety Council official turned congressman Andy Kim is operating in New Jersey to switch incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, who was convicted on corruption fees and resigned. Each are favored to win…. In Virginia, former CIA agent Abigail Spanberger isn’t in search of reelection to her Home seat, saying plans as an alternative to run for governor of Virginia subsequent yr, when Republican Glenn Youngkin leaves after the only time period he’s allowed underneath the state structure. Spanberger is the heavy favourite to win the Democratic nomination. Spanberger’s alternative within the Home is more likely to be essentially the most distinguished new military-intelligence Democrat: Eugene Vindman, a profession army officer born in Ukraine.” Oh man. Vindman? Extra: “Apart from Eugene Vindman, one other high-profile military-intelligence operative is in search of a Home seat as a Democrat: Maggie Goodlander, the spouse of Nationwide Safety Advisor Jake Sullivan.” The underside line: “These numbers exhibit that the inflow of State Division, Nationwide Safety Council, Pentagon and CIA operatives into Congress, via the Democratic Celebration, isn’t an unintentional phenomenon, or the product of 1 election cycle. It’s the final result of a particular coverage, which has two parts. First, and creating alternatives for them to run in Democratic-leaning congressional districts the place they’re more likely to be elected. Second, .” • We’d as effectively be in Tsarist Russia, besides the Okhrana acquired itself elected to the Duma. And to sloganize: “Democrats are spooks who wish to mess together with your head.” One thing like that (which has the advantage of being maybe a chiaroscuro model of the reality).
Realignment and Legitimacy
“ActBlue lobbies up amid GOP probes” [Politico]. “ActBlue, the left’s favored on-line donation platform, is popping to Ok Avenue because it appears to beat again accusations of lax safety and donor fraud introduced ahead by state and federal Republican officers. Covington & Burling’s Matthew Shapanka, a former Senate Guidelines aide who helped craft the up to date bipartisan Electoral Rely Act reform invoice in 2022, started lobbying for ActBlue on Sept. 9 on the Safe Dealing with of Web Digital Donations — or SHIELD — Act, in response to a disclosure submitting. The SHIELD Act had been launched days earlier by Home Administration Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.). It stemmed from an investigation into considerations that ActBlue wasn’t verifying its donors correctly as a result of it didn’t require them to supply the three-digit CVV codes on the again of their playing cards. Amongst different issues, Steil’s invoice would bar political committees from accepting contributions if a CVV code was not supplied and would additionally bar donations made utilizing present playing cards, pre-paid credit score or debit playing cards or present certificates.”
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
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Keep protected on the market!
Airborne Transmission: Covid
“Can the an infection danger in elevators be negligible? A comparative research of airborne an infection chance in elevators and convention rooms” [Energy and Buildings]. From the Summary: “The outcomes confirmed that the an infection chance within the elevator with 5 min (common 2.70%) was increased than that within the convention room with 50 min (common 1.77%).” • As Michael Osterholm ought to know.
Transmission: H5N1
Ulp (1):
Ulp (2):
“milking: ~12 hours a day in shut contact w/ cows.
udders ~ excessive viral hundreds
want PPE to cease H5N1 fowl flu and defend farmworkers, however onerous to put on for hours in warmth.
want full head helmet w/ powered, purified airflow.”https://t.co/qwMz0MelAD@RanuDhillon https://t.co/kTxu72t2v1
— Devabhaktuni “Sri” Srikrishna (@sri_srikrishna) October 15, 2024
If we had been planning for a second pandemic — on high of Covid already weakened immunue techniques at a inhabitants stage — it’s to see how we may very well be doing a greater job. And wastewater:
Vaccines
“New Nasal Vaccines Provide Higher Safety from COVID and Flu—No Needle Wanted” [Scientific American]. “Vaccines delivered via the nostril are actually being examined for a number of ailments. Within the U.S., early scientific trials are exhibiting success. Two of those vaccines have generated a number of immune system responses in opposition to the COVID-causing virus in individuals who obtained them via a puff up the nostril; earlier this yr their makers obtained practically $20 million from Undertaking NextGen, the Biden-Harris administration’s COVID medical initiative. Researchers are optimistic {that a} nasal spray delivering a COVID vaccine may very well be prepared for the U.S. as quickly as 2027. Though latest efforts have targeted on inoculations in opposition to SARS-CoV-2, nasal vaccines may additionally defend us in opposition to the flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and extra.” • 2027 [bangs head on desk].
Sequelae: Covid
“COVID-19 raises the stakes for coronary heart assaults, strokes, and even loss of life lengthy after an infection, new research finds” [Fortune]. “Virtually from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and medical specialists feared–and sometimes loudly warned–that the virus wasn’t like different infections that individuals would possibly encounter throughout, say, flu season. SARS-CoV-2 was completely different. It was worse. And the potential long-term results, as we reported two years in the past, had been much more worrisome. A brand new large-scale research places these longer-range considerations into daring aid. The outcomes are as unforgiving as many specialists had hypothesized. The research, involving practically a quarter-million adults, discovered that these with any kind of COVID-19 an infection in 2020 had twice the danger of struggling a serious cardiac occasion—a coronary heart assault, stroke, and even loss of life—within the three years after a analysis than those that weren’t contaminated. Individuals whose infections had been extreme sufficient to warrant hospitalization confronted practically a 4 occasions better danger of a serious cardiac occasion or loss of life than the uninfected group. ‘These findings are plain and intensely troubling,’ says David Putrino, the director of the Cohen Middle for Restoration from Advanced Persistent Sickness at Mount Sinai Faculty of Medication. ‘The importance of this work is that our present public well being coverage surrounding COVID-19 is insufficient. Individuals have to be knowledgeable of the dangers they’re incurring to their long-term well being by being repeatedly contaminated with SARS-CoV-2.’” • Oh, yeah, private danger evaluation, that’s been working nice. Why not clear the air?
“Lengthy COVID Charges in Youngsters Revised Upward: What to Know” [MedScape]. “In essentially the most expansive research of its variety, researchers have for the primary time proven severe and prevalent signs of lengthy COVID in children and teenagers. The August research, revealed within the Journal of the American Medical Affiliation, is among the many first massive complete research of the dysfunction on this age group. The research, which adopted 5367 kids, discovered that 20% of children (ages 6-11) and 14% of teenagers met researchers’ threshold for lengthy COVID. Till now, analysis has been missing as a result of kids had been considered much less inclined to each acute COVID-19 and lengthy COVID, specialists say. However by some estimates, as much as 5.8 million children and teenagers have the dysfunction. Examine creator Rachel Gross, MD, an affiliate professor within the departments of pediatrics and inhabitants well being at NYU Langone, is according to the share of adults identified with lengthy COVID.” • Keep in mind to start with, when the minimizers informed us kids didn’t even get Covid? Good occasions. Helpful chart:
Social Norming
Another excuse for denial:
my dad uncovered me to covid, i acquired it, acquired longcovid, misplaced every thing. we havent spoken because it occurred, he hasnt even tried to nor stated he loves me since i acquired sick. he disappeared slightly than admit he tousled. https://t.co/Z5zCSQSWLT
— 🎨Artsy M*rxist 🎨 (commissions waitlist open) (@ArtsyMarx1st) October 15, 2024
Rule #2 is common in scope:
* * * TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts
Wastewater This week[1] CDC October 5 Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):
Variants [3] CDC October 12 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 5
Hospitalization New York[5] New York State, knowledge October 10: Nationwide [6] CDC September 21:
Positivity Nationwide[7] Walgreens October 7: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5:
Vacationers Knowledge Positivity[9] CDC September 16: Variants[10] CDC September 16:
Deaths Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28:
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new right this moment; all others are usually not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Nonetheless some sizzling spots, however I can’t draw circles round complete areas this week. Excellent news!
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* highly regarded. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, however value noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Positively down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “every thing in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.
[7] (Walgreens) Huge drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up, although lagged.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index plummeted to -11.9 in October 2024, down from 11.5 in September and stunning analysts who anticipated it at 3.8. This marks the worst studying since Could, pointing to a renewed contraction within the New York State and at a strong tempo.”
* * * Manufacturing: “Boeing’s disaster is getting worse. Now it’s borrowing tens of billions of {dollars}” [CNN]. “In a regulatory submitting early Tuesday, the corporate introduced plans to borrow $10 billion from a consortium of banks. It additionally individually introduced plans to lift $25 billion by promoting inventory and debt. The $10 billion borrowing plans could be included within the $25 billion that Boeing filed to lift…. Boeing’s credit standing has plunged to the bottom investment-grade stage – simply above “junk bond” standing – and main credit standing companies have warned Boeing is in peril of being downgraded to junk. That may increase its price of borrowing.”
Manufacturing: “Official: Boeing 777X supply delayed till a minimum of 2026” [Mile Lion]. “Up until lately, Boeing was nonetheless making optimistic noises a few late 2025 debut for the plane, with Emirates CEO Tim Clark stating on the 2023 Dubai Airshow that he hoped to get his first B777-9 by October 2025. However that was all the time going to be a tall order, and now we’ve got official affirmation of what’s maybe the worst-kept secret in aviation: the Boeing 777X is formally delayed until a minimum of 2026. Remember, it’s not simply the work stoppage that’s the issue. The B777X has had a torrid time with its certification, with the FAA chiding the airline at one level that its proposed certification schedule was ‘outdated and now not mirror the programme actions.’ Whereas the all-important Kind Inspection Authorisation (TIA) was granted in July 2024, enabling the corporate to start the certification course of, it’s not all been clean crusing. Simply a few months in the past, the take a look at fleet was grounded after a routine post-flight inspection revealed the failure of a thrust hyperlink that mounts the engine to the plane.” • Yikes.
Manufacturing: “Emirates’ Clark raises ‘looming’ specter of Boeing chapter safety” [The Air Current]. “In an e-mail to The Air Present following the introduced Oct. 11 delay to the certification of Boeing’s 777-9 flagship jetliner, [Emirates president Sir Tim Clark, Boeing’s largest twin-aisle jet customer,] stated, ‘Except the corporate is ready to increase funds via a Rights Problem, I see an imminent funding downgrade with Chapter 11 looming on the horizon.’” • Or nationalization.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Is Flexing the Monetary Muscle It Has Left” [Bloomberg]. The deck: “Buyers are betting {that a} backlog of virtually 5,500 plane will finally unlock a mountain of money.” Extra: “Nicely, the corporate has about 5,500 plane that it has already offered and solely must assemble and ship. Buyers see a mountain of money locked up in that backlog. All the corporate has to do is settle a nasty strike of 33,000 machinists, revamp its work tradition to place high quality above all, stabilize its provide chain, end work on the brand new 777X plane and crank out planes. In fewer phrases, Boeing must execute. This can be a daunting activity, and most buyers imagine the corporate has lastly chosen the precise individual to drag off this historic turnaround after Kelly Ortberg was employed as chief govt officer in August. The thermometer for investor sentiment round Boeing’s potential to proper the ship will likely be mirrored within the value of the brand new shares, which may increase $10 billion or extra to assist shore up its funds.” • So I suppose that’s why Ortberg is busting the machinist’s chops? For “investor sentiment”?
Manufacturing: “Boeing layoff plan suggests deep white-collar job cuts” [Seattle Times]. “The exclusion for now of 33,000 Machinists from the deliberate cuts signifies that Boeing can attain the ten% goal said within the slides for the Business Airplanes unit solely via deep cuts among the many white-collar employees, together with engineers and nonunion salaried staff…. Maybe the pondering is that shedding Machinists now would possibly inflame passions and make the strike tougher to settle. If that’s so, blue-collar layoffs may come later. Nonetheless, the necessity for the layoffs has little to do with the Machinists’ strike. It’s a restructuring by new CEO Kelly Ortberg designed to handle the broader and deeper issues Boeing faces….The one means ahead for Boeing is to start out constructing planes once more and to ramp up manufacturing again to the charges deliberate earlier than the January blowout. To realize these charges, it had been hiring machinists at a fast clip. At any time when the strike ends, it’ll want most of these machinists able to swing into motion.”
* * * In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 74 Greed (earlier shut: 76 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 70 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 15 at 1:03:44 PM ET.
The
PresentCinemaThe manufacturing course of for silent movies:
On today in 1893, silent famous person Lillian Gish was born in Springfield, Ohio. In 1988, I wrote to her asking if silent movies had precise dialogue written out within the scripts or if there was only a basic description of what was being stated. This was her outstanding reply. pic.twitter.com/Tzv8EgnZhz
— Steve Stoliar (@StoliarSteve) October 14, 2024
Picture E book
By way of alert reader Wukchumi:
“Time is what you make of it.” I want!
Slaves (implicit):
yeah the clear objective of this expertise is to have the ability to outsource in-person service jobs to hyper-exploited staff within the international south, not liberate human labor from service work. https://t.co/AvXwuqtVlH
— Cassie Pritchard (@hecubian_devil) October 13, 2024
After all, the objective is by no means to “liberate human labor.” Who could be foolish sufficient to think about that?
Slaves (express). ANC = African Nationwide Congress:
Think about having a housekeeper that does not vote ANC, would not have 55 uncle’s funerals to attend yearly, will not steal your meals, and also you solely need to pay for it as soon as?
Signal me up pic.twitter.com/IW8XrREn5Q
— Keanu (@Keanubtc) October 11, 2024
“You solely need to pay for it as soon as.” Certainly. Now if we will simply get them to breed…
Information of the Wired
I’m not feeling wired right this moment.* * * Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are wonderful! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:
TH writes: “Right here in Westminster, California, a rose society lives on the Civic heart, so, resulting from their many gardens of roses, I’ve an considerable provide of rose photographs. Sorry if the border is a bit a lot. Be happy to crop.”
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