To Bitcoin or to not Bitcoin? A Company Money Query!

    On this submit, I’ll convey collectively two disparate and really completely different subjects that I’ve written about up to now. The primary is the position that money holdings play in a enterprise, an extension of the dividend coverage query, with an examination of why companies typically shouldn’t pay out what they’ve accessible to shareholders. In my lessons and writing on company finance, I have a look at the motives for companies retaining money, in addition to how a lot money is an excessive amount of money. The second is bitcoin, which may be considered as both a forex or a collectible, and in a collection of posts, I argued that bitcoin can solely be priced, not valued, making debates about whether or not to purchase or to not purchase completely a operate of notion. The truth is, I’ve steered away from saying a lot about bitcoin in recent times, although I did point out it in my submit on different investments as a collectible (like gold) that may be added to the selection combine. Whereas there could also be little that seemingly connects the 2 subjects (money and bitcoin), I used to be drawn to put in writing this submit due to a debate that appears to be heating up on whether or not corporations ought to put some or a big portion of their money balances into bitcoin, with the success of MicroStrategy, a high-profile beneficiary of this motion, driving a few of this push. I consider that it’s a horrible thought for many corporations, and earlier than Bitcoin believers get riled up, my reasoning has completely nothing to do with what I consider bitcoin as an funding and extra to do with how little I belief company managers to time trades proper. That stated, I do see a small subset of corporations, the place the holding bitcoin technique is sensible, so long as there are guardrails on disclosure and governance.

Money in a Going Concern

    In a world the place companies can increase capital (fairness or debt) at truthful costs and in a well timed method, there’s no need to carry money, however that isn’t the world we reside in. For a wide range of causes, some inside and a few exterior, corporations are sometimes unable or unwilling to lift capital from markets, and with that constraint in place, it’s logical to carry money to fulfill unexpected wants. On this part, I’ll begin by laying out the position that money holdings play in any enterprise, and study how a lot money is held by corporations, damaged down by groupings (regional, measurement, business). 

A Monetary Stability Sheet

    To know the place of money in a enterprise, I’ll begin with a  monetary steadiness sheet, a construction for breaking down a enterprise, public or non-public:

On the asset facet of the steadiness sheet, you begin with the working enterprise or companies that an organization is in, with a bifurcation of worth into worth from investments already made (assets-in-place) and worth from investments that the corporate expects to make sooner or later (development belongings). The second asset grouping, non-operating belongings, features a vary of investments that an organization could make, generally to reinforce its core companies (strategic investments), and generally as facet investments, and thus embrace minority holdings in different corporations (cross holdings) and even investments in monetary belongings. Typically, as is the case with household group corporations, these cross holdings could also be a mirrored image of the corporate’s historical past as a part of the group, with investments in different group corporations for both capital or company management causes. The third grouping is for money and marketable securities, and that is meant particularly for investments that share two frequent traits – they’re riskless or near riskless insofar as holding their worth over time and they’re liquid within the sense that they are often transformed to money shortly and with no penalty. For many corporations, this has meant investing money in short-term bonds or payments, issued by both governments (assuming that they’ve little default danger) or by giant, secure corporations (within the type of industrial paper issued by extremely rated companies). 

    Observe that there are two sources of capital for any enterprise, debt or fairness, and in assessing how levered a agency is, traders have a look at the proportion of the capital that comes from every:

• Debt to Fairness = Debt/ Fairness
• Debt to Capital = Debt/ (Debt + Fairness)

The truth is, there are a lot of analysts and traders who estimate these debt ratios, utilizing web debt, the place they web the money holdings of an organization towards the debt, with the rationale, merited or not, that money can be utilized to pay down debt.

• Internet Debt to Fairness = (Debt-Money)/ Fairness
• Debt to Capital = (Debt-Money)/ (Debt + Fairness)

All of those ratios may be computed utilizing accounting ebook worth numbers for debt and fairness or with market worth numbers for each. 

The Motives for holding Money

    In my introductory finance lessons, there was little dialogue of money holdings in corporations, exterior of the classes on working capital. In these classes, money was launched as a lubricant for companies, obligatory for day-to-day operations. Thus, a retail retailer that had scores of money clients, it was argued, wanted to carry more money, typically within the type of forex, to fulfill its transactional wants, than an organization with company suppliers and enterprise clients, with predictable patterns in operations. The truth is, there have been guidelines of thumb that have been developed on how a lot money an organization wanted to have for its operations. Because the world shifts away from money to digital and on-line funds, this want for money has decreased, however clearly not disappeared. The one carve out is the monetary providers sector, the place the character of the enterprise (banking, buying and selling, brokerage) requires corporations within the sector to carry money and marketable securities as a part of their working companies.

    If the one motive for holding money was to cowl working wants, there can be no strategy to justify the tens of billions of {dollars} that many corporations maintain; Apple alone has typically had money balances that exceeded $200 billion, and the opposite tech giants usually are not far behind. For some corporations, a minimum of, the rationale for holding far more money than justified by their working wants is that it will probably function as a shock absorber, one thing that they will fall again on during times of disaster or to cowl surprising bills. That’s the reason that cyclical and commodity companies have typically provided for holding giant money balances (as a p.c of their total agency worth), since a recession or a commodity worth downturn can shortly flip earnings to losses.

   Utilizing the company life cycle construction also can present perception into how the motives for holding money can change as an organization ages.  

For start-ups, which might be both pre-revenue or have very low revenues, money is required to maintain the enterprise working, since staff need to be paid and bills coated. Younger companies which might be money-losing and with giant damaging money flows, maintain money to cowl future money circulate wants and to fend off the chance of failure. In impact, these companies are utilizing money as life preservers, the place they will make it by intervals the place exterior capital (enterprise capital, particularly) dries up, with out having to promote their development potential at discount basement costs. As companies begin to generate income, and enter excessive development, money has use as a enterprise scalar, for companies that wish to scale up shortly. In mature development, money acquires optionality, helpful in permitting the enterprise to search out new markets for its merchandise or product extensions.  Mature companies generally maintain money as youth serum, hoping that  it may be used to make once-in-a-lifetime investments that will take them again to their development days, and for declining companies, money turns into a liquidation supervisor, permitting for the orderly reimbursement of debt and sale of belongings.

    There’s a last rationale for holding money that’s rooted in company governance and the management and energy that comes from holding money. I’ve lengthy argued that absent stress from shareholders, managers at most publicly traded companies would select to return little or no of the money that they generate, since that money steadiness not solely makes them extra wanted (by bankers and consultants who’re endlessly creative about makes use of that the money may be put to) but additionally provides them the facility to construct company empires and create private legacies.

Company Money Holdings

    Given the multitude of causes for holding money, it ought to come as no shock that publicly traded corporations around the globe have vital money balances. Main into July 2025, as an example, world non-financial-service companies held nearly $11.4 trillion in money and marketable securities; monetary service companies held much more in money and marketable securities, however these holdings, as we famous earlier, can signify their enterprise wants. Utilizing our earlier breakdown of the asset facet of the steadiness sheet into money, non-operating and working belongings, that is what non-financial service companies within the mixture regarded like in ebook worth phrases (world and simply US companies):

Observe that money is about 11% of the ebook worth of whole belongings, within the mixture, for world companies, and about 9% of the ebook worth of whole belongings, for US companies. International companies do maintain a better share of their worth in non-operating belongings, however US companies are extra lively on the acquisition entrance, explaining why goodwill (which is triggered nearly completely by acquisitions) is larger at US companies.

    The standard publicly traded agency holds a big money steadiness, however there are vital variations in money holdings, by sector. Within the desk beneath, I have a look at money as a p.c of whole belongings, a ebook worth measure, in addition to money as a p.c of agency worth, computed by aggregating market values:

As you may see, expertise companies, which presumably face extra uncertainty about their future maintain far more money as a p.c of ebook worth, however the worth that the market attaches to their development brings down money as a p.c of agency worth. Utilities, regulated and infrequently steady companies, have a tendency to carry the least money, each in ebook and market phrases. 

    Breaking down the pattern by area, I have a look at money holdings, as a p.c of whole belongings and companies, throughout the globe:

The variations throughout the globe may be defined by a mixture of market entry, with international locations in elements of the world the place it may be troublesome to entry capital (Latin America, Jap Europe, Africa) holding more money. As well as, and company governance, with money holdings being higher in elements of the world (China, Russia) the place shareholders have much less energy over managers. 

    Given the sooner dialogue of how the motives for holding money can fluctuate throughout the life cycle, I broke the pattern down by age decile, with age measured from the yr of founding, and checked out money holdings, by decile:

The outcomes are combined, with money holdings as a p.c of whole belongings being greater for the youthful half of the pattern (the highest 5 deciles) than for the older half, however the isn’t any discernible sample, when money is measured as a p.c of agency worth (market). Put easy, corporations throughout the life cycle maintain money, although with completely different motives, with the youngest companies holding on to money as lifesavers (and for survival) and the older companies maintaining money within the hopes that they will use it to rediscover their youth.

The Magic of Bitcoin

    I’ve been educating and dealing with investments now for 4 a long time, and there was no funding that has acquired as a lot consideration from each traders and the monetary press, relative to its precise worth, as has bitcoin. Among the draw has come from its connections to the digital age, however a lot of it has come from its speedy rise in worth that has made many wealthy, with intermittent collapses which have made simply as many poor. I’m a novice in the case of crypto, and whereas I’ve been open about the truth that it’s not my funding desire, I perceive its draw, particularly for youthful traders.

The Brief, Eventful Historical past of Bitcoin

    The origin story for Bitcoin issues because it helps us perceive each its attraction and its construction. It was born in November 2008, two months into one of many worst monetary crises of the final century, with banks and governments considered as largely liable for the mess. Not surprisingly, Bitcoin was constructed on the presumption that you simply can’t belief these establishments, and its greatest innovation was the blockchain, designed as a method of crowd-checking transactions and preserving transaction integrity. I’ve lengthy described Bitcoin as a forex designed by the paranoid for the paranoid, and I’ve by no means meant that as a critique, since within the  untrustworthy world that we reside in, paranoia is a justifiable posture.

    From its humble beginnings, the place only some (largely tech geeks) have been conscious of its existence, Bitcoin has accrued evangelists, who argue that it’s the forex of the long run, and speculators who’ve used its wild worth swings to make and lose tens of tens of millions of {dollars}. Within the chart beneath, I have a look at the worth of bitcoin over the past decade, as its worth has elevated from lower than $400 in September 2014 to greater than $110,000 in June 2025:

Alongside the best way, Bitcoin has additionally discovered some acceptance as a forex, first for unlawful actions (medicine on the Silk Highway) after which because the forex for international locations with failed fiat currencies (like El Salvador), however even Bitcoin advocates will agree that its use in transactions (because the medium of change) has not stored tempo with its development as a speculative commerce. 

Pricing Bitcoin

    In a submit in 2017,  I divided investments into 4 teams – belongings that generate money flows (shares, bonds, non-public companies), commodities that can be utilized to supply different items  (oil, iron ore and many others), currencies that act as mediums of change and shops of worth and collectibles which might be priced primarily based on demand and provide:

Chances are you’ll disagree with my categorization, and there are shades of grey, the place an funding may be in multiple grouping. Gold, as an example, is each a collectible of lengthy standing and a commodity that has particular makes use of, however the former dominates the latter, in the case of pricing. In the identical vein, crypto has a various array of gamers, with just a few assembly the asset check and a few (like ethereum) having commodity options. The distinction between the completely different funding lessons additionally permits for a distinction between investing, the place you purchase (promote) an funding whether it is below (over) valued, and buying and selling, the place you purchase (promote) an funding should you count on its worth to go up (down). The previous is a alternative, although not a requirement, with an asset (shares, bonds or non-public companies), although there could also be others who nonetheless commerce that asset. With currencies and collectibles, you may solely commerce, making judgments on worth course, which, in flip, requires assessments of temper and momentum, slightly than fundamentals. 

    With bitcoin, this classification permits us to chop by the various distractions that pop up throughout discussions of its pricing stage, since it may be framed both as a forex or a collectible, and thus solely priced, not valued. Seventeen years into its existence, Bitcoin has struggled on the forex entrance, and whereas there are pockets the place it has gained acceptance, its design makes it inefficient and its volatility has impeded its adoption as a medium of change. As a collectible, Bitcoin begins with the benefit of shortage, restricted as it’s to 21 million items, however it has not fairly measured up, a minimum of thus far, in the case of holding its worth (or growing it) when monetary belongings are in meltdown mode. In each disaster since 2008, Bitcoin has behaved extra like dangerous inventory, falling way over the typical inventory, when shares are down, and rising extra, once they recuperate. I famous this in my posts trying on the efficiency of investments in each the primary quarter of 2020, when COVID laid waste to markets, and in 2022, when inflation ravaged inventory and bond markets. That stated, it’s nonetheless early in its life, and it’s completely attainable that it might change its habits because it matures and attracts in a wider investor base. The underside line is that discussions of whether or not Bitcoin is reasonable or costly are sometimes pointless and generally irritating, because it relies upon nearly completely in your perspective on how the demand for Bitcoin will shift over time. In the event you consider that its attraction will fade, and that it is going to be displaced by different collectibles, maybe even within the crypto house, you may be within the quick promoting camp. If you’re satisfied that its attraction is not going to simply endure but additionally attain recent segments of the market, you might be on stable floor in assuming that its worth will proceed to rise. It behooves each teams to confess that neither has a monopoly on the reality, and this can be a disagreement about buying and selling and never an argument about fundamentals.