Mural Oncology (MURA) ($~30MM market cap) has changed into a little bit of a battleground busted biotech within the feedback part of my unique submit. I all the time respect suggestions on concepts, on this case it helped me keep away from the autumn in MURA’s inventory worth after their just lately printed enterprise replace. The money burn has been considerably greater than anticipated as they wind down their R&D and medical efforts, however included within the press launch have been a number of nuggets value mentioning making the inventory attention-grabbing at present worth ranges.
First, MURA provides a money estimate for year-end, this can be a optimistic change as they did not within the unique April strategic alternate options announcement:
As of June 30, 2025, the corporate had roughly $77.1 million in money and money equivalents. The corporate estimates that, if it has not consummated a transaction or different strategic various by December 31, 2025, its money and money equivalents as of such date will complete roughly $43 to $48 million.
On the mid-point, that equates to roughly $2.50/share. As well as, most firms will warn that any ahead estimates might are available decrease than anticipated or sale processes take longer than anticipated, and so on., however MURA form of did the other:
This money steerage is topic to quite a few assumptions and precise money balances might differ materially, significantly if the Firm consummates a transaction or different strategic various previous to December 31, 2025.
“Precise money balances might differ materially” then cite a optimistic kind shock, simply discovered that attention-grabbing to notice. Possibly one thing is already within the works? Lastly, MURA snuck in language round a liquidation or wind down being a chance which they hadn’t talked about beforehand:
any strategic various it could pursue, together with, however not restricted to, a suggestion for or different acquisition of the corporate, merger, enterprise mixture or different transaction, together with a potential wind- down and liquidation of the corporate
The easy again of envelope math is beneath, my guess is somebody like XOMA or Tang (though one destructive right here is neither Tang nor BML are identified shareholders) are available and make a suggestion that quantities to a liquidation dressed up as an acquisition (helps with the Irish takeover guidelines, provides administration change of management bonuses, and so on.) for 90% of the projected year-end money:
There may be some acknowledged hair on this case, it’s a former spin that hasn’t reached the 2 12 months protected harbor (would try this in November) and it has additionally let go of over 90% of their staff bringing into query whether or not the IRS would nonetheless take into account this an energetic commerce or enterprise. My uneducated take is MURA remains to be within the drug improvement enterprise, they have not bought their belongings/enterprise (different biotechs, SYBX involves thoughts, appear very conscious to keep away from being categorised as a money shell and proceed to say their IP in filings regardless of equally stopping all improvement efforts), normally there may be some grace interval however I admit it is a threat.
