Market Efficiency Overview: November 2024:
November 2024 was marked by heightened market fluctuations, because the Nifty 50 grappled with a mixture of home and world challenges. Weak second-quarter company earnings, wealthy valuations, and exterior headwinds just like the U.S. Presidential elections and India’s Meeting polls weighed closely on sentiment. The index slipped to a 5-month low through the month and moved inside a tighter vary of 1,274 factors, in comparison with 1,834 factors in October. Market volatility climbed to fifteen from the earlier month’s 12, reflecting rising uncertainty. Regardless of these pressures, the Nifty 50 posted a minor decline of simply 0.31%, the smallest month-to-month lack of the yr. Amongst sectors, IT shares outperformed, advancing 6.8% as optimism round Donald Trump’s election victory boosted hopes for favorable coverage adjustments that would profit Indian tech companies reliant on U.S. income.
Overseas institutional buyers (FIIs) maintained their promoting streak, withdrawing ₹46,000 crore from Indian equities in November. Though the outflows remained substantial, they had been considerably decrease than October’s report of ₹1.14 lakh crore. A quick interval of FII shopping for from November 23 to 25, amounting to ₹11,112 crore, provided short-term reduction earlier than promoting resumed, with giant withdrawals of ₹11,756 crore and ₹4,383 crore on consecutive days. In distinction, home institutional buyers (DIIs) supplied vital assist by buying ₹44,000 crore value of equities through the month. Their robust participation helped offset a few of the promoting strain from overseas buyers, stopping steeper losses and lending stability to the market amid a difficult surroundings.
Sectoral efficiency
Throughout Indian equities, November showcased a combined sectoral efficiency amid heightened market volatility. IT, realty, and PSU banking emerged because the top-performing sectors, every recording features exceeding 6%, pushed by sector-specific tailwinds and improved sentiment. Alternatively, FMCG, power, pharma, and commodities underperformed, going through challenges from subdued shopper demand, rising enter prices, and broader market pressures. Within the following sections, we offer a extra complete examination and detailed insights of some main sectors:
Auto:
The automotive sector in November 2024 exhibited a combined efficiency throughout varied segments, reflecting differing demand dynamics and market circumstances.
The passenger automobile phase noticed a modest 6-7% year-on-year (YoY) progress in home gross sales, pushed by robust SUV volumes. Nonetheless, month-on-month (MoM) gross sales declined by 7-9% as a consequence of seasonal changes post-festive season. Entry-level automotive gross sales confronted slight strain, whereas the SUV phase demonstrated sturdy YoY progress of round 20%. Total, home PV gross sales remained resilient, with choose sub-segments exhibiting vital features.
The industrial automobile phase reported flat YoY gross sales however skilled a pointy 20% MoM decline, primarily as a consequence of weaker demand for heavy vans. Alternatively, passenger carriers within the CV house posted substantial progress, with YoY features of over 30% in some classes. Shifting ahead, low single-digit progress is anticipated for FY25, pushed by gradual enhancements in fleet utilization and substitute demand within the medium and heavy industrial automobile (MHCV) phase.
Two-wheeler gross sales introduced a combined image, with home volumes remaining flat YoY whereas exports surged by 32%. The festive season supplied short-term assist to home gross sales, which had been additional bolstered by rising rural demand and new mannequin launches. Dispatches grew 3% YoY total, however particular person efficiency throughout producers assorted.
The three-wheeler phase skilled a combined pattern, with notable YoY declines in home dispatches for some producers, whereas others achieved robust progress. This divergence highlights uneven demand restoration on this phase.
Tractor gross sales remained regular YoY in November however noticed a steep MoM decline of roughly 50% as a consequence of seasonal components. A restoration in demand is anticipated within the latter half of FY25, supported by favorable agricultural circumstances, together with above-average monsoon rainfall, improved reservoir ranges, and a promising Rabi harvest.
The automotive trade continues to navigate a assorted restoration trajectory. Whereas sure segments, equivalent to SUVs and passenger carriers, display robust progress potential, challenges persist in different areas, equivalent to heavy vans and entry-level vehicles. A mix of rural demand, agricultural resilience, and selective substitute cycles is anticipated to form the sector’s efficiency within the coming months..
Chemical compounds:
The chemical substances sector skilled a widespread decline in costs on a month-on-month foundation in November 2024, persevering with to regulate from the height ranges witnessed through the pandemic. Most chemical substances exhibited a downward pattern, with acetone costs registering the steepest fall at 10%. Different vital declines included TDI and IPA, which dropped by 9% and eight%, respectively, whereas MEG, acetonitrile, and acetic acid noticed reductions starting from 4% to eight%. Heavy soda ash was the only real exception, sustaining secure pricing through the month.
This broad-based value correction highlights the sector’s shift towards normalization amid easing supply-demand imbalances. Whereas home demand remained regular, heightened competitors from Chinese language producers has intensified pricing pressures, notably throughout the commodity chemical substances phase.
Within the close to time period, the commodity chemical substances phase is anticipated to stay range-bound, supported by respectable home consumption. Nonetheless, in the long term, corporations that concentrate on creating value-added merchandise and advancing up the worth chain with enhanced scale and complexity are prone to outperform. Such strategic shifts present higher insulation from aggressive pressures and pave the best way for sustained progress in comparison with a reliance on commodity-focused operations.
The chemical substances trade’s trajectory will largely hinge on balancing secure home demand with the worldwide aggressive panorama, notably the affect of pricing from Chinese language markets.
Metals:
In November 2024, Indian metal costs noticed a slight dip of 0.6% month-on-month (MoM), reaching Rs 47,700 per tonne, whereas Chinese language metal costs fell extra sharply by 4.9% MoM to $485 per tonne. Coking coal costs remained secure at $170 per tonne, owing to weaker demand in world markets. Home metal manufacturing in India rose by 6.8% YoY, reaching 12.5 million tonnes in October 2024, whereas Chinese language metal manufacturing additionally noticed a rise of 6.2% MoM, reaching 82 million tonnes. Nonetheless, world metal manufacturing declined by 5.9% MoM, totalling 152 million tonnes.
Chinese language metal exports continued to surge, rising by 10.1% MoM and 40.8% YoY to 11.2 million tonnes, marking the very best stage in 9 years. This uptick in exports displays weak home demand in China, regardless of a number of stimulus packages. The continued elevated exports from China stay a priority for the worldwide metal sector, placing strain on home metal costs.
Within the enter markets, home iron ore costs fell by 2% MoM to Rs 7,250 per tonne, whereas worldwide costs rose by 1.8% to $97 per tonne. Manganese costs noticed a decline of three% MoM, dropping to Rs 15,560 per tonne.
The non-ferrous metals phase additionally skilled a correction, with aluminium costs slipping by 0.6% MoM to $2,577 per tonne. Copper costs fell extra sharply by 5.2% MoM to $9,011 per tonne, primarily pushed by disappointing demand expectations in China. Zinc costs dropped by 2.6% MoM to $3,109 per tonne, reflecting weak demand linked to the sluggish actual property market in China.
Trying forward, India’s metal sector may benefit from decrease enter costs, with home iron ore costs dropping and secure coking coal costs doubtlessly enhancing margins for Indian steelmakers within the coming quarters. Moreover, the Indian Metal Ministry’s proposal for a 25% obligation on sure metal imports might present some assist for home costs. Regardless of agency home demand projections of 8%-9% progress in FY25, the wealthy valuations of metal corporations restrict potential upside, resulting in a impartial outlook for the sector within the close to time period.
Lodges:
The inns sector continued its robust efficiency in November 2024, with year-on-year (YoY) progress in common day by day fee (ADR) throughout each decrease and better value bands. The ADR noticed a powerful enhance of 17.6% within the lower cost band and 27.3% within the greater value band in comparison with November 2023. Among the many key home markets, Bengaluru and Goa stood out with a big uptrend in lodge costs, each seeing a progress of over 30% YoY as a consequence of sustained demand. Different markets additionally skilled wholesome double-digit ADR progress, reflecting total robust efficiency throughout the sector.
The addition of latest inns continued at a wholesome tempo, with organized gamers specializing in increasing their presence via administration contracts and licensing agreements, moderately than possession, to keep up monetary flexibility. This technique has enabled them to capitalize on the rising demand in India’s hospitality trade. The speedy enlargement of India’s luxurious hospitality sector, pushed by rising disposable incomes, altering traveler preferences, and infrastructure enhancements, has resulted in a surge in demand for premium experiences. This pattern is clear in each tier-one and tier-two cities, attracting each home and worldwide lodge manufacturers.
The sector maintained its progress trajectory via Q3 2024, registering a ten.8% enhance in income per out there room (RevPAR) pushed by greater ADRs. On a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) foundation, the sector continued to carry out nicely, marking a 2% enhance in RevPAR from Q2 2024 to Q3 2024. This displays the sector’s constant upward motion because it advantages from robust demand and a positive market surroundings.
Necessary occasions & updates
A couple of vital occasions of the final month and upcoming ones are as beneath:
- India’s GDP grew by 5.4% YoY within the September 2024 quarter, slowing from 6.7% within the earlier quarter and falling in need of the 6.5% market expectation, marking the weakest progress since December 2022.
- India’s infrastructure output rose by 3.1% YoY in October 2024, up from 2% in September, recording the very best progress in three months.
- The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI fell to 56.5 in November 2024, down from 57.3 and October’s 57.5, indicating slower progress in new enterprise and manufacturing amid robust demand, competitors, and value pressures.
- The HSBC India Providers PMI was revised to 58.4 in November 2024, beneath the preliminary 59.2 and October’s 58.5, marking the fortieth straight month of progress, pushed by robust demand and new enterprise features.
- The HSBC India Composite PMI was 58.6 in November 2024, beneath the flash estimate of 59.5 and October’s 59.1, marking the fortieth consecutive month of enlargement in personal sector exercise.
- The RBI stored the repo fee at 6.5% for the eleventh straight assembly in December and lower the CRR by 50bps to 4%, its first discount since April 2020, to spice up liquidity forward of tax outflows.
Basic outlook:
India’s financial outlook stays constructive, pushed by a number of favorable structural components that place the nation nicely for long-term progress regardless of short-term challenges. The secure political panorama, ongoing infrastructure improvement, and an emphasis on capital expenditure (Capex) are key drivers of credit score progress, which in flip helps Indian equities. Because of this, the fairness market is anticipated to ship double-digit returns over the following 2-3 years, supported by sturdy earnings progress. Though GDP progress in Q2FY25 fell beneath expectations at 5.4%, this slowdown will be attributed to short-term components such because the Loksabha elections, widespread flooding, and diminished authorities spending. Regardless of this, a powerful restoration in earnings is anticipated within the second half of FY25, pushed by components equivalent to elevated authorities Capex, post-monsoon actions, a rise in wedding-related spending, and an anticipated rural demand pickup. The Reserve Financial institution of India’s (RBI) resolution to cut back the Money Reserve Ratio (CRR) and take measures to make sure liquidity additional strengthens the financial system’s progress prospects, because it mitigates any liquidity issues.
Trying forward, the Indian financial system is anticipated to maintain its progress momentum. The RBI has revised its actual GDP progress forecast for FY25 down to six.6% from 7.2%, however the outlook for the second half of the yr stays robust, with projected progress of 6.8% in Q3FY25 and seven.2% in Q4FY25. This progress is anticipated to be pushed by authorities spending, a restoration in rural demand, and powerful exterior commerce. Inflation, which had been a priority earlier in FY25, is projected to reasonable, with the RBI anticipating it to return to 4% by Q2FY26. This will likely be supported by easing meals costs as the brand new crop season arrives and secure oil costs. The RBI’s CRR lower will inject Rs. 1.16 trillion into the banking system, offering ample liquidity. Furthermore, measures equivalent to rising the ceiling on FCNR deposits will assist increase capital inflows, additional supporting the financial system. With these supportive components in place, India’s progress trajectory stays optimistic, underpinned by each home and world drivers.
Technical outlook.
India’s macroeconomic indicators proceed to mirror a powerful financial basis. The infrastructure sector registered a 3.1% year-on-year progress in October 2024, the very best in three months. The manufacturing sector stays robust, with the Manufacturing PMI for November 2024 at 56.5, indicating strong progress in manufacturing and new enterprise regardless of some moderation. The Providers PMI was revised to 58.4, sustaining wholesome enlargement within the companies sector, whereas the Composite PMI at 58.6 additional helps the view of continued progress within the personal sector. On inflation, the RBI has famous dangers stemming from meals and core inflation however anticipates moderation within the coming months, supported by a positive base impact and secure oil costs. The mix of enhancing liquidity, robust infrastructure exercise, and a resilient manufacturing and companies sector alerts continued progress for India.
Outlook for the International Market
US Market:
The US market continues to draw report ranges of funding, buoyed by the nation’s robust financial efficiency. With most economists projecting continued progress into 2025, the US has proven spectacular restoration from excessive inflation, setting a benchmark for different developed nations. Constructive credit standing tendencies are anticipated to persist, with debt defaults prone to lower in 2025. The incoming Trump administration’s promise of deregulation, notably within the monetary and power sectors, provides to the constructive sentiment, additional driving investor confidence. Nonetheless, uncertainty stays as a consequence of potential sweeping coverage adjustments, notably round tariffs and commerce relations with key companions like China, Mexico, and Canada. In November, the “Trump commerce” dominated markets, with the US Greenback strengthening on expectations of tariffs, whereas Bitcoin surged amid talks of a crypto reserve. The inventory market additionally rallied on hopes for tax cuts, although tensions in Ukraine and commerce frictions with China created volatility.
The US financial system is projected to develop at 2.3% in 2024, with continued enlargement anticipated in 2025, supported by robust shopper spending and company funding. Inflation is anticipated to rise to 2.9% by year-end as a consequence of difficult year-on-year comparisons however will ease to 2.5% by the top of 2025. The labor market is anticipated to point out indicators of cooling, with the unemployment fee rising barely to mid-4% in 2025. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to chop short-term charges to 4.25%-4.5% in December 2024, with additional reductions in 2025. Nonetheless, aggressive fee cuts are unlikely as a consequence of potential inflationary pressures, particularly if tariffs are enacted. Whereas the US financial system stays resilient, a number of dangers might weigh on market sentiment. Tariff will increase might reignite inflation and pressure credit score markets, notably for lower-rated debtors. Moreover, geopolitical tensions and climate-related dangers to bodily belongings might additional complicate the outlook.
For buyers, sectors poised to learn from deregulation, equivalent to financials and power, provide promising alternatives. Nonetheless, with the specter of greater tariffs looming, particularly on China and different buying and selling companions, short-term warning could also be required in shopper items and know-how shares. Mounted-income markets might see features within the quick time period as a consequence of anticipated fee cuts, however rising inflation and geopolitical dangers might dampen returns over time.
The advice for our buyers is cautiously optimistic. Whereas the US financial system exhibits robust progress potential, cautious consideration to coverage adjustments, geopolitical dangers, and sector-specific dynamics will likely be important for navigating the market in 2025.
Outlook for Gold
Gold costs in India have surged as a consequence of geopolitical dangers, world uncertainties, and expectations of coverage easing. Regardless of current volatility, gold ended November 2024 close to Rs 78,000 per 10 grams for 24K gold, marking a 22% enhance for each 22K and 24K gold because the begin of the yr. The Reserve Financial institution of India’s stance on rates of interest, together with expectations of additional fee cuts by the US Federal Reserve, has additionally supported gold costs. Geopolitical tensions and potential tariff threats from the US proceed to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
What ought to Buyers do?
Given the present financial surroundings, we suggest a cautious strategy at this stage, advising buyers to keep away from bulk investments. Whereas the medium-to-long-term outlook for the Indian financial system stays optimistic, pushed by favorable structural components, we’re seeing indicators of short-term volatility that would impression market efficiency.
India’s financial fundamentals proceed to current a constructive long-term progress story. The nation’s secure political regime, ongoing capital expenditure (Capex) initiatives, and enhancing credit score progress are anticipated to drive sustained earnings progress over the following 2-3 years. Regardless of this, current financial information, such because the Q2FY25 GDP progress falling in need of expectations at 5.4%, alerts some short-term challenges. The RBI’s downward revision of its FY25 GDP progress forecast to six.6% additional displays the financial slowdown within the first half of the yr, although restoration is anticipated within the latter half.
Moreover, inflation issues have resurfaced, with the RBI revising its inflation forecast for FY25 upward to 4.8%, in comparison with the sooner estimate of 4.5%. The present inflationary pressures, together with the current GDP miss, point out that whereas the financial system is exhibiting indicators of restoration, it would take time for progress to completely stabilize. This has prompted the RBI to take a extra cautious stance, retaining the repo fee unchanged whereas offering liquidity assist via a 50bps CRR lower.
Moreover, India’s VIX is presently beneath its long-term common, indicating that the market is in a impartial zone, neither too unstable nor overly optimistic. This impartial positioning suggests potential market fluctuations within the quick run, making it an opportune time to train warning.Given these components—financial slowdown issues, upward inflation revision, and market volatility—we suggest that buyers undertake a extra measured strategy within the present surroundings.
Disclaimer:
This text shouldn’t be construed as funding recommendation, please seek the advice of your Funding Adviser earlier than making any sound funding resolution.
If you happen to don’t have one go to mymoneysage.in
